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A signal in a communication channel is detected when the voltage is higher than 1.5 volts in absolute value. Assume that the voltage is normally distributed with a mean of \(0 .\) What is the standard deviation of voltage such that the probability of a false signal is \(0.005 ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The standard deviation is approximately 0.534 volts.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We are given that the probability of a false signal, defined as when the voltage exceeds 1.5 volts in absolute value, is 0.005. We need to find the standard deviation of the normally distributed voltage, which has a mean of 0, to achieve this probability.
02

Use the Standard Normal Distribution

Since the voltage is normally distributed with mean 0, the problem can be simplified using the standard normal distribution (Z-distribution). The absolute value condition corresponds to the probability that the absolute value of Z is greater than 1.5 divided by the standard deviation \( \sigma \). This is written as \( P(|Z| > \frac{1.5}{\sigma}) = 0.005 \).
03

Symmetry Property of Normal Distribution

Because the normal distribution is symmetric, \( P(|Z| > x) = 2 \times P(Z > x) \). Therefore, we have \( 2 \times P(Z > \frac{1.5}{\sigma}) = 0.005 \). Simplifying, \( P(Z > \frac{1.5}{\sigma}) = 0.0025 \).
04

Use Z-Table/ Normal Distribution Table

Consult a standard normal distribution table (Z-table) to find the Z-value, \( z \), that corresponds to a right-tail probability of 0.0025. From the table, \( z \) is approximately 2.807.
05

Solve for Standard Deviation

We have \( \frac{1.5}{\sigma} = 2.807 \). Solving for \( \sigma \), we get \( \sigma = \frac{1.5}{2.807} \). Calculating this gives \( \sigma \approx 0.534 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
In probability theory, the concept of normal distribution is essential when dealing with data that tends to cluster around a central value, especially in real-world situations. The normal distribution, often referred to as a bell curve due to its shape, represents how values of a variable are distributed. It's symmetric, unimodal, and fully defined by two parameters: the mean and the standard deviation.
  • **Symmetry**: The normal distribution is perfectly symmetrical around its mean. This means the probability of values occurring equal distances from the mean are the same.
  • **Mean**: Located at the center of the bell curve, the mean indicates the average value of all data points.
  • **Area Under the Curve**: Total area under the curve equals 1, representing all possible probabilities.
When we say the voltage in our problem is normally distributed with a mean of 0, it implies that most voltage measurements are close to 0. As voltages deviate from 0, they become less probable. In our problem, determining a suitable standard deviation depends on adapting the normal distribution to achieve a specific probability of false signals.
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a crucial metric in statistics, measuring the amount of variation or dispersion within a set of values. The greater the standard deviation, the more spread out the values are, and vice versa.
  • **Description**: Standard deviation is expressed in the same units as the data, placing it in direct relation to the average.
  • **Importance**: It helps in understanding how data points spread around the mean.
  • **Relation to Normal Distribution**: In a normal distribution, about 68% of values fall within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% within two, and 99.7% within three.
In the context of our exercise, we used the requirement for a false signal probability to find the standard deviation. By finding how the Z-values, which represent standard deviations away from the mean, map to specific probabilities, we were able to calculate the necessary standard deviation to achieve a false alarm rate of 0.005. Here it resulted in adjusting the distribution such that the specified probability is met.
False Signal Probability
False signal probability represents the likelihood of an incorrect signal detection above a certain threshold. In communication systems, this is crucial to ensure effectiveness and efficiency.
  • **Definition**: False signal probability specifies how often a system incorrectly detects a signal when none should be present. It's a type of error in statistical decision processes, often termed as 'Type I error'.
  • **Importance in Communication**: Lower false signal probabilities generally imply more reliable communications but may require more sophisticated systems.
  • **Setting Limits**: Practitioners set a false signal threshold (like the voltage in our exercise) where the sensitivity of the system balances with the occurrence of false detections.
In the exercise, a false signal probability of 0.005 was used to guide the calculation of the standard deviation. Our assumption was that this rate would sufficiently minimize false signals in the communication channel while maintaining the ability to efficiently manage actual signals.

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