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3.5.14 WP This exercise illustrates that poor quality can affect schedules and costs. A manufacturing process has 100 customer orders to fill. Each order requires one component part that is purchased from a supplier. However, typically, \(2 \%\) of the components are identified as defective, and the components can be assumed to se independent. a. If the manufacturer stocks 100 components, what is the probability that the 100 orders can be filled without reordering components? b. If the manufacturer stocks 102 components, what is the probability that the 100 orders can be filled without reordering components? c. If the manufacturer stocks 105 components, what is the probability that the 100 orders can be filled without reordering components?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) ~13.4%, b) ~70%, c) ~92.7%

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

This problem involves calculating probabilities related to defective components in a manufacturing process. We need to determine the likelihood that 100 customer orders can be fulfilled without needing additional components beyond those initially stocked, accounting for the probability of defectiveness.
02

Define the Defective Component Rule

Each component has a 2% probability of being defective, meaning each component has a 98% probability of being non-defective. Denote the probability of a component being non-defective as \( p = 0.98 \).
03

Calculate Probability for 100 Components

The manufacturer stocks exactly 100 components, and each customer order requires one non-defective component. The scenario can be modeled using a binomial distribution where we want all 100 components to be non-defective. Therefore, the probability that all are non-defective is: \( (0.98)^{100} \). Simplified, this calculates to approximately \( e^{-2} \approx 0.134 \).
04

Calculate Probability for 102 Components

With 102 components, at most 2 can be defective. We need the probability that at least 100 components are non-defective. Using the binomial distribution's complement rule, calculate the probability of having 0 or 1 or 2 defective components out of 102, i.e., \( P(X \leq 2) \). This involves adding up \( P(X=0) \), \( P(X=1) \), and \( P(X=2) \), where \[ \begin{align*} P(X=k) &= \binom{102}{k} (0.02)^k (0.98)^{102-k} \end{align*} \].
05

Calculate Probability for 105 Components

If there are 105 components, the objective is to have at least 100 non-defective components. We need to compute the probability that there are at most 5 defective components among 105. Again using the binomial distribution, calculate \( P(X \leq 5) \) which involves probabilities for \( P(X=0,1,2,3,4,5) \). This ensures 100 or more are non-defective.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Defective components
In manufacturing, a defective component is one that fails to meet the required standards of quality or functionality. These components can cause delays and increase costs as defective parts might need replacement. Identifying defects is crucial for maintaining a streamlined production line and ensuring customer satisfaction.
To manage defects effectively, companies often track the defect rate, which is the percentage of items produced that are defective. In our scenario, there is a 2% defect rate, meaning out of 100 components, approximately 2 could be defective. This statistically expected defectiveness needs to be managed efficiently to prevent disrupting the order fulfillment process.
Understanding the defect rate helps in planning how much extra inventory is necessary to ensure that all customer orders can still be fulfilled on time without frequent reordering.
Binomial distribution
A binomial distribution is a probability distribution that summarizes the likelihood of a value taking one of two independent states. In our manufacturing context, each component can either be defective or non-defective, corresponding to two possible outcomes.
The binomial distribution is characterized by two parameters: the number of trials (in this case, the number of components) and the probability of success (a non-defective component). For example, with 100 components and a 98% chance each component is non-defective, the probability of all components being non-defective can be calculated using this distribution model.
If we let "success" mean that a component is non-defective, the formula for the probability of no more than a certain number of defects is given by \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \]where \( n \) is the total number of components and \( p \) is the probability of a component being non-defective.
Quality control
Quality control is a process used to ensure that a product meets certain quality standards before reaching the consumer. This process can involve various techniques, such as inspections, testing, and statistical analysis, to identify and reduce defects. In our case, it would mean managing that 2% defect rate effectively.
Implementing robust quality control processes helps in minimizing the chance of defective components making it into the final product. Organizations might perform random sampling inspections to estimate the defect rate accurately. Proper quality control measures can also involve collaboration with suppliers to maintain stringent quality standards right from the source.
Maintaining control over the quality means fewer defects and thus, fewer disruptions or financial losses due to faulty components. It not only satisfies customer expectations but also enhances the credibility of the manufacturing unit.
Manufacturing process
The manufacturing process describes how raw materials are transformed into a finished product. It involves various stages, including designing, sourcing components, assembling, inspecting for quality, and finally, distribution.
Having an effective manufacturing process is crucial in handling probabilities related to defective components. Manufacturers often keep extra stock as a buffer against defects, which can cause a need for reordering or hold up production if not properly accounted for. In our example, whether the manufacturer starts with 100, 102, or 105 components, proper planning ensures that final product delivery isn't delayed due to unexpected defects.
Beyond just the assembly line, an efficient manufacturing process involves careful planning and coordination among suppliers, inventory management, and quality assurance teams, all working together to minimize defects and ensure timely delivery of high-quality products.

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