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Suppose that we wish to test \(H_{0}: \mu=\mu_{0}\) versus \(H_{1}: \mu \neq \mu_{0}\) where the population is normal with known \(\sigma .\) Let \(0<\epsilon<\alpha,\) and define the critical region so that we will reject \(H_{0}\) if \(z_{0}>z_{\varepsilon}\) or if \(z_{0}<-z_{\alpha-\varepsilon},\) where \(z_{0}\) is the value of the usual test statistic for these hypotheses. (a) Show that the probability of type I error for this test is \(\alpha\). (b) Suppose that the true mean is \(\mu_{1}=\mu_{0}+\delta\). Derive an expression for \(\beta\) for the above test.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Type I error is \(\alpha\). (b) \(\beta = P(-z_{\alpha-\epsilon} < z_0 < z_\epsilon | \mu = \mu_0 + \delta)\).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Type I Error

Type I error occurs when the null hypothesis \(H_0\) is true, but we incorrectly reject it. The critical region for rejecting \(H_0\) is given by \(z_0 > z_\epsilon\) or \(z_0 < -z_{\alpha-\epsilon}\). Therefore, the probability of committing a Type I error is the sum of the probabilities of \(z_0\) being greater than \(z_\epsilon\) or less than \(-z_{\alpha-\epsilon}\), which correspond to the tails of the standard normal distribution. Hence, the probability of Type I error, \(\alpha\), is the sum of these probabilities.
02

Calculating Probability of Type I Error

The probability for \(z_0 > z_\epsilon\) is \(\epsilon\) and for \(z_0 < -z_{\alpha-\epsilon}\) is \(\alpha - \epsilon\), given the symmetry of the normal distribution around zero. Therefore, the combined probability of Type I error is \(\epsilon + (\alpha - \epsilon) = \alpha\).
03

Understanding Alternative Hypothesis

Under the alternative hypothesis \(H_1: \mu eq \mu_0\), the true mean is \(\mu_1 = \mu_0 + \delta\). This implies that the test statistic \(z_0\) will have shifted by a mean \(\delta\) if \(H_1\) is true, as the distribution of the sample mean will be centered around \(\mu_1\) instead of \(\mu_0\).
04

Calculating Power of Test and \(\beta\)

The power of the test is the probability of correctly rejecting \(H_0\) when \(H_1\) is true. We are interested in finding \(\beta\), which is the probability of failing to reject \(H_0\) when \(H_1\) is true. This is given by the area under the normal curve between \(-z_{\alpha-\epsilon}\) and \(z_\epsilon\) when the mean is \(\mu_1 = \mu_0 + \delta\). Using the standard normal distribution, the expression for \(\beta\) can be derived as follows: \[\beta = P(-z_{\alpha-\epsilon} < z_0 < z_\epsilon | \mu = \mu_0 + \delta)\]. We find the z-values for these conditions under the shifted distribution.
05

Deriving \(\beta\) Expression

The z-value under \(H_1: \mu = \mu_0 + \delta\) is \(z_0 = \frac{(X - (\mu_0 + \delta))}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}}\). We set \(-z_{\alpha-\epsilon}\) as \(\frac{(X - (\mu_0 + \delta))}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}} < z_\epsilon\). Solving these inequalities, we find: \[\beta = P(-z_{\alpha-\epsilon} + \frac{\delta \sqrt{n}}{\sigma} < \frac{X - \mu_1}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}} < z_\epsilon + \frac{\delta \sqrt{n}}{\sigma})\]. This gives us the probability of Type II error for our critical region.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Type I Error
When conducting a hypothesis test, a Type I error happens when we falsely reject the null hypothesis, denoted as \(H_0\), even though it is actually true. This error is represented by the Greek letter \(\alpha\), which is also called the "significance level" of the test.

In our hypothesis test scenario, we reject \(H_0\) if our test statistic \(z_0\) is either greater than a critical value \(z_\epsilon\) or less than \(-z_{\alpha-\epsilon}\). These critical values are determined based on the tails of the normal distribution.

The areas in these tails represent the probability that \(z_0\) will fall into these critical regions when \(H_0\) is true. Specifically, the probability \(P(z_0 > z_\epsilon)\) is \(\epsilon\), and \(P(z_0 < -z_{\alpha-\epsilon})\) is \(\alpha - \epsilon\). By adding these probabilities together, we get \(\epsilon + (\alpha - \epsilon) = \alpha\). This means the Type I error rate is exactly \(\alpha\).
Type II Error
While a Type I error involves incorrectly rejecting \(H_0\), a Type II error occurs when we fail to reject \(H_0\) even though the alternative hypothesis \(H_1\) is true. This error is denoted by \(\beta\).

In our test, \(H_1\) is valid when the true mean \(\mu_1\) is different from \(\mu_0\) by some amount \(\delta\). When \(\mu_1 = \mu_0 + \delta\), the distribution of the test statistic shifts. This shift affects the region where we expect the test statistic to fall under \(H_1\).

The probability \(\beta\) describes how likely it is that \(z_0\) stays between \(-z_{\alpha-\epsilon}\) and \(z_\epsilon\) under \(H_1\). The mathematical expression for \(\beta\) includes compensating for this "shift" by \(\delta\), and is given by: \[\beta = P\left(-z_{\alpha-\epsilon} + \frac{\delta \sqrt{n}}{\sigma} < \frac{X - \mu_1}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}} < z_\epsilon + \frac{\delta \sqrt{n}}{\sigma}\right)\]. This expression shows the probability of making a Type II error.
Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution often known as the bell curve due to its shape. It is significant in hypothesis testing because many test statistics, including our \(z_0\), follow this distribution under the null hypothesis.

In our hypothesis test example, we assume the underlying population distribution is normal. This assumption allows us to compute probabilities and critical values accurately. The standard normal distribution has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1, which we use to find critical values like \(z_\epsilon\) and \(-z_{\alpha-\epsilon}\).

Understanding the properties of the normal distribution helps us to interpret the significance level \(\alpha\) and how it corresponds to the tails of the distribution. Whether we're assessing potential Type I errors or measuring the power of a test against Type II errors, the normal distribution is integral to analyzing the behavior of data in statistical tests.
Test Statistic
A test statistic is a standardized value that helps to determine if we should reject the null hypothesis \(H_0\). In our example, the test statistic \(z_0\) measures how far the sample mean is from the hypothesized population mean \(\mu_0\), considering the standard deviation \(\sigma\) and the sample size \(n\).

The formula to calculate \(z_0\) is: \[z_0 = \frac{X - \mu_0}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}}\]. This value tells us the position of our sample mean within the context of the standard normal distribution. Based on where \(z_0\) falls relative to our critical points \(z_\epsilon\) and \(-z_{\alpha-\epsilon}\), we decide whether to reject \(H_0\).

Test statistics are pivotal because they transform sample data into a framework where we can apply probability. This transformation lets us make objective decisions about hypotheses based on pre-determined significance levels, helping to minimize errors in hypothesis testing. By comparing \(z_0\) with critical values, we systematically decide the course of action based on evidence rather than intuition.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose that eight sets of hypotheses of the form $$H_{0}: \mu=\mu_{0} \quad H_{1}: \mu \neq \mu_{0}$$ have been tested and that the \(P\) -values for these tests are \(0.15,\) \(0.06 .0 .67,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.78,\) and \(0.13 .\) Use Fisher's procedure to combine all of the \(P\) -values. What conclusions can you draw about these hypotheses?

The marketers of shampoo products know that customers like their product to have a lot of foam. A manufacturer of shampoo claims that the foam height of its product exceeds 200 millimeters. It is known from prior experience that the standard deviation of foam height is 8 millimeters. For each of the following sample sizes and with a fixed \(\alpha=0.05,\) find the power of the test if the true mean is 204 millimeters. (a) \(n=20\) (b) \(n=50\) (c) \(n=100\) (d) Does the power of the test increase or decrease as the sample size increases? Explain your answer.

For the hypothesis test \(H_{0}: \mu=5\) against \(H_{1}: \mu<5\) and variance known, calculate the \(P\) -value for each of the following test statistics. (a) \(z_{0}=2.05\) (b) \(z_{0}=-1.84\) (c) \(z_{0}=0.4\)

Medical researchers have developed a new artificial heart constructed primarily of titanium and plastic. The heart will last and operate almost indefinitely once it is implanted in the patient's body, but the battery pack needs to be recharged about every four hours. A random sample of 50 battery packs is selected and subjected to a life test. The average life of these batteries is 4.05 hours. Assume that battery life is normally distributed with standard deviation \(\sigma=0.2\) hour. (a) Is there evidence to support the claim that mean battery life exceeds 4 hours? Use \(\alpha=0.05 .\) (b) What is the \(P\) -value for the test in part (a)? (c) Compute the power of the test if the true mean battery life is 4.5 hours. (d) What sample size would be required to detect a true mean battery life of 4.5 hours if you wanted the power of the test to be at least \(0.9 ?\) (e) Explain how the question in part (a) could be answered by constructing a one-sided confidence bound on the mean life.

The mean water temperature downstream from a discharge pipe at a power plant cooling tower should be no more than \(100^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\). Past experience has indicated that the standard deviation of temperature is \(2^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\). The water temperature is measured on nine randomly chosen days, and the average temperature is found to be \(98^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\). (a) Is there evidence that the water temperature is acceptable at \(\alpha=0.05 ?\) (b) What is the \(P\) -value for this test? (c) What is the probability of accepting the null hypothesis at \(\alpha=0.05\) if the water has a true mean temperature of \(104^{\circ} \mathrm{F} ?\)

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