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A manufacturer produces piston rings for an automobile engine. It is known that ring diameter is normally distributed with \(\sigma=0.001\) millimeters. A random sample of 15 rings has a mean diameter of \(\bar{x}=74.036\) millimeters. (a) Construct a \(99 \%\) two-sided confidence interval on the mean piston ring diameter. (b) Construct a \(99 \%\) lower-confidence bound on the mean piston ring diameter. Compare the lower bound of this confidence interval with the one in part (a).

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 99% CI: (74.035335, 74.036665); (b) Lower bound: 74.035335; They are the same.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Given Information

We are given that the standard deviation \(\sigma\) is 0.001 mm, the sample size \(n\) is 15, and the sample mean \(\bar{x}\) is 74.036 mm. The confidence level is 99%.
02

Find the Z-Score for 99% Confidence Interval

For a 99% confidence level, we find the critical value \(z\) from the standard normal distribution. Since the confidence level is 99%, the alpha level is 0.01, and we need \(z\) that corresponds to the 0.5% tail area because it is a two-tailed test. The \(z\) value is approximately 2.576.
03

Calculate Margin of Error for Two-Sided Interval

The margin of error \(E\) for the confidence interval is given by the formula \(E = z \cdot \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\). Substitute \(z = 2.576\), \(\sigma = 0.001\), and \(n = 15\):\[E = 2.576 \cdot \frac{0.001}{\sqrt{15}} = 0.000665\]
04

Construct the 99% Two-Sided Confidence Interval

The two-sided confidence interval for the mean is calculated as:\[(\bar{x} - E, \bar{x} + E) = (74.036 - 0.000665, 74.036 + 0.000665)\]Thus, the interval is \((74.035335, 74.036665)\).
05

Calculate Lower Bound for 99% Confidence Interval

For the 99% lower-confidence bound, you only subtract the margin of error from the sample mean. Thus, the lower bound is:\[\bar{x} - z \cdot \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} = 74.036 - 0.000665 = 74.035335\]So the lower bound is 74.035335.
06

Compare Lower Bounds

Compare the lower bound from the two-sided confidence interval, \(74.035335\), with the lower bound calculated in part (b), \(74.035335\). They are the same, as expected, because the two-sided interval's lower bound is used directly when calculating the one-sided lower bound.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is one of the most important concepts in statistics. It describes a continuous probability distribution that is symmetric around the mean. The shape of the normal distribution is often referred to as a bell curve because of its bell-like shape.

Here are some key features of a normal distribution:
  • The mean, median, and mode of the distribution are all equal.
  • It is perfectly symmetric about the mean.
  • The total area under the curve is 1, which corresponds to a probability of 1.
  • Approximately 68% of the data falls within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% within two standard deviations, and 99.7% within three standard deviations. This is known as the empirical rule.
Understanding the normal distribution is crucial as many statistical tests and confidence intervals assume data is normally distributed. In our example, the diameters of the piston rings are normally distributed with a known standard deviation. This allows us to apply statistical methods confidently to calculate confidence intervals and draw inferences from the sample data.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the values in a data set are around the mean. It gives an indication of how much individual observations of a data set differ from the mean.

Calculating the standard deviation involves:
  • Finding the average (mean) of the data set.
  • Calculating the difference of each data point from the mean, and squaring those differences.
  • Finding the mean of these squared differences.
  • Taking the square root of this final mean.
In our exercise, the standard deviation of the diameter of the piston rings is already known to be 0.001 millimeters. With this data in hand, the standard deviation is crucial for determining the variability within the data, and it is a key part in computing the confidence interval.
Sample Mean
The sample mean is the average value of a sample, which is a subset of the population. It is an estimator of the population mean. The sample mean provides a snapshot value that helps to summarize the entire data set.

The computation of the sample mean is straightforward. It involves summing all the observed values in the sample and dividing by the number of observations. Mathematically, it is expressed as:\[\bar{x} = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n} x_i}{n}\]where \(x_i\) are the observed values and \(n\) is the number of observations in the sample.

In the original problem, the sample mean for the diameters of the 15 ring samples was given as 74.036 millimeters. The sample mean is crucial for constructing confidence intervals, as it serves as the central estimate around which the interval is built.
Z-Score
A Z-score measures how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. It's a crucial concept for understanding how far or close a data point is relative to the rest of the data. In the context of confidence intervals, Z-scores are used to determine the critical value for the population parameter estimate.

Here's how the Z-score is utilized:
  • It is obtained from the standard normal distribution table.
  • For a given confidence level, the Z-score helps in establishing the margin of error, which directly affects the breadth of the confidence interval.
  • For a 99% confidence interval, a Z-score of approximately 2.576 is typically used, meaning the area of distribution beyond these Z-scores equates to the remaining percentage of confidence (usually split between two tails of the distribution).
In the context of the exercise, the Z-score is utilized to calculate the margin of error, which is then employed to derive both the two-sided confidence interval and the lower bound confidence interval. Understanding Z-scores is vital for interpreting statistical results, particularly when making inference from sample data to the larger population.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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