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Scientists at the Hopkins Memorial Forest in westem Massachusetts have been collecting meteorological and environmental data in the forest data for more than 100 years. In the past few years, sulfate content in water samples from Birch Brook has averaged \(7.48 \mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{L}\) with a standard deviation of \(1.60 \mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{L}\) (a) What is the standard error of the sulfate in a collection of 10 water samples? (b) If 10 students measure the sulfate in their samples, what is the probability that their average sulfate will be between 6.49 and \(8.47 \mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{L} ?\) (c) What do you need to assume for the probability calculated in (b) to be accurate?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 0.5066 mg/L. (b) Probability is 0.95. (c) Assume normal distribution of sulfate levels.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Standard Error

To find the standard error, use the formula \( SE = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \), where \( \sigma = 1.60 \mathrm{mg/L} \) is the standard deviation, and \( n = 10 \) is the number of samples: \[ SE = \frac{1.60}{\sqrt{10}} \approx 0.5066 \mathrm{mg/L}\]
02

Determine Z-scores for the Range

For part (b), first calculate the Z-scores for the sulfate measurements of 6.49 and 8.47 mg/L using the formula \( Z = \frac{X - \mu}{SE} \), where \( X \) is the sulfate level: For 6.49: \[ Z_1 = \frac{6.49 - 7.48}{0.5066} \approx -1.96 \]For 8.47:\[ Z_2 = \frac{8.47 - 7.48}{0.5066} \approx 1.96 \]
03

Calculate Probability Using Z-scores

Using the standard normal distribution table, find the probability for each Z-score. For \( Z_1 = -1.96 \), the probability is 0.025. For \( Z_2 = 1.96 \), the probability is 0.975. The probability of the average sulfate falling between these values is: \[ P(Z_1 < Z < Z_2) = 0.975 - 0.025 = 0.95 \]
04

State Assumptions

For the probability calculated in step 3 to be accurate, we need to assume that the distribution of sulfate levels is approximately normal (or the sample size is large enough such that the Central Limit Theorem applies, which usually requires \( n \geq 30 \), but normality in the population makes this test robust for smaller samples, like 10).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is a fundamental statistical tool used to measure the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. It tells us how much the individual data points deviate from the mean.

For instance, in the case of sulfate levels in water samples, the standard deviation \( \sigma = 1.60 \, \text{mg/L} \) provides insight into the consistency of sulfate concentrations in Birch Brook.
  • A smaller standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be close to the mean.
  • A larger standard deviation means the data is more spread out from the mean.
To calculate the standard deviation, you determine how much each data point in a dataset deviates from the mean and then take the average of these deviations. It's a valuable measure because it’s expressed in the same units as the data, making it easy to interpret. Understanding standard deviation helps in assessing the reliability and spread of collected data in environmental studies like the sulfate levels in Birch Brook.
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution, also known as the Gaussian distribution, is a key concept in statistics. It is a probability distribution that is symmetric about the mean, showing that data near the mean are more frequent in occurrence than data far from the mean.

This distribution is often visualized as a bell-shaped curve, where:
  • The mean (average) is at the center of the curve.
  • The standard deviation controls the width of the curve. Smaller standard deviation leads to a steeper curve.
  • Most of the data, about 68%, falls within one standard deviation from the mean.
  • About 95% lie within two standard deviations.
Normal distributions are crucial because many statistical tests and methods are based on the assumption of normality. In the context of the Hopkins Memorial Forest study, assuming a normal distribution allows us to use Z-scores and probability tables to estimate the likelihood of certain sulfate levels occurring within a specific range.
Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is a powerful statistical principle that states that the distribution of the sample mean approaches a normal distribution as the sample size grows, regardless of the distribution of the original population, provided the sample size is sufficiently large.

Here are some key points about CLT:
  • It allows us to make inferences about population parameters using sample statistics, even if the original data isn't normally distributed.
  • For practical applications, a sample size of 30 is often considered enough for the CLT to hold.
  • In the exercise about sulfate levels, even with a smaller sample size of 10, the CLT can assist in making approximations about the sample mean, thanks to underlying population normality.
The Central Limit Theorem is particularly useful in real-world problems where data collection encompasses various underlying distributions. It empowers statisticians and researchers to apply normal distribution methods to estimate probabilities and perform hypothesis testing more effectively.

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