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Suppose that \(X\) has a beta distribution with parameters \(\alpha=1\) and \(\beta=4.2 .\) Determine the following: (a) \(P(X<0.25)\) (b) \(P(0.5

Short Answer

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(a) 0.6762, (b) 0.0625, (c) Mean: 0.1923, Variance: 0.0322.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Beta Distribution

The beta distribution is a continuous probability distribution defined on the interval [0, 1], characterized by two positive shape parameters, \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\). In this problem, \(\alpha = 1\) and \(\beta = 4.2\).
02

Compute part (a): Cumulative Probability

To find \(P(X < 0.25)\), we use the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the beta distribution. The CDF can be calculated using the Beta function, or computational tools. For \(X \sim \text{Beta}(1, 4.2)\), \(P(X < 0.25)\) is approximately 0.6762.
03

Compute part (b): Complementary Probability

\(P(0.5 < X) = 1 - P(X \leq 0.5)\). Use the CDF for the beta distribution to find \(P(X \leq 0.5)\). For \(X \sim \text{Beta}(1, 4.2)\), \(P(X \leq 0.5)\) is approximately 0.9375. Thus, \(P(0.5 < X) = 1 - 0.9375 = 0.0625\).
04

Compute the Mean of the Beta Distribution

The mean of a beta distribution is given by \(\frac{\alpha}{\alpha + \beta}\). For this problem, the mean is \(\frac{1}{1 + 4.2} = 0.1923\).
05

Compute the Variance of the Beta Distribution

The variance of a beta distribution is \(\frac{\alpha \cdot \beta}{(\alpha + \beta)^2 (\alpha + \beta + 1)}\). For this problem, the variance is \(\frac{1 \cdot 4.2}{(1 + 4.2)^2 (1 + 4.2 + 1)} \approx 0.0322\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) for the Beta Distribution
The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) is a fundamental tool for understanding probability distributions. In the context of a beta distribution, the CDF helps us understand the probability that a random variable, say X, will take a value less than or equal to a specific number within the interval [0, 1].
For a beta distribution with parameters \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\), the CDF of \(X\) up to a point \(x\) is calculated using the beta function. However, in practice, we often use tools or tables, as seen in the exercise, to determine these values.
To find \(P(X < 0.25)\) with \(X \sim \text{Beta}(1, 4.2)\), the CDF is approximately 0.6762. This means there is about a 67.62% likelihood that \(X\) falls below 0.25.
Mean and Variance Calculation for the Beta Distribution
Calculating the mean and variance is crucial for describing a distribution comprehensively. For the beta distribution, these terms directly relate to its parameters \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\).
**Mean**: The mean of a beta distribution is determined by the formula \(\frac{\alpha}{\alpha + \beta}\). This formula highlights how the shape parameters influence the center of the distribution. In our particular case with \(\alpha = 1\) and \(\beta = 4.2\), the mean is calculated as \(\frac{1}{1+4.2} = 0.1923\). This indicates that the expected value of \(X\) is around 0.1923.
**Variance**: The variance formula provides insight into the spread of the distribution: \(\frac{\alpha \cdot \beta}{(\alpha + \beta)^2 (\alpha + \beta + 1)}\). For the given parameters \(\alpha = 1\) and \(\beta = 4.2\), the variance computes to roughly 0.0322, indicating a relatively concentrated spread around the mean.
Probability Calculation for Specific Intervals
Calculating probabilities for certain intervals can uncover the likelihood of events falling within specified ranges. For a beta distribution, this often involves computing or using complementary probabilities through the CDF.
To determine \(P(0.5 < X)\), we'll first find its complementary probability, which involves \(P(X \leq 0.5)\). Using the CDF, this probability is found to be approximately 0.9375. Hence, \(P(0.5 < X) = 1 - P(X \leq 0.5) = 1 - 0.9375 = 0.0625\).
What this means is there's about a 6.25% chance that \(X\) is greater than 0.5, indicating the rarity of observing values in this upper portion of the distribution.

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