Chapter 4: Problem 178
Suppose that \(X\) has a lognormal distribution with parameters \(\theta=10\) and \(\omega^{2}=16\). Determine the following: (a) \(P(X<2000)\) (b) \(P(X>1500)\) (c) Value exceeded with probability 0.7
Short Answer
Expert verified
(a) \(P(X < 2000) \approx 0.275\); (b) \(P(X > 1500) \approx 0.749\); (c) Value exceeded with probability 0.7 is approximately 2693.
Step by step solution
01
Understanding Lognormal Distribution
The lognormal distribution of a variable \(X\) with mean \(\theta\) and variance \(\omega^2\) implies that \(\ln(X)\) is normally distributed with mean \(\mu = \theta\) and variance \(\sigma^2 = \omega^2\). Therefore, \(\ln(X)\) is \(N(10, 16)\).
02
Translating to Standard Normal
To solve these problems, convert \(\ln(X)\) to a standard normal variable \(Z\) using the formula: \[Z = \frac{\ln(X) - \mu}{\sigma} = \frac{\ln(X) - 10}{4}\] since the standard deviation \(\sigma\) is the square root of the variance, \(4\).
03
Calculating P(X < 2000)
For part (a), we want \(P(X < 2000)\). Compute \(\ln(2000)\) first, then standardize: \[Z = \frac{\ln(2000) - 10}{4}\] Approximating \(\ln(2000) \approx 7.6\), so \(Z = \frac{7.6 - 10}{4} = -0.6\). Use a standard normal distribution table to find \(P(Z < -0.6)\).
04
Calculating P(X > 1500)
For part (b), we compute \(P(X > 1500)\). So, find \(Z = \frac{\ln(1500) - 10}{4}\). Approximate \(\ln(1500) \approx 7.3\), thus \(Z = \frac{7.3 - 10}{4} = -0.675\). Use a standard normal distribution table to find \(P(Z > -0.675)\), which is equal to \(1 - P(Z < -0.675)\).
05
Finding Value Exceeded With Probability 0.7
For part (c), find the value \(x\) such that \(P(X > x) = 0.7\), which is equivalent to \(P(X < x) = 0.3\). Find \(Z = -0.524\) where it corresponds to \(P(Z < -0.524) = 0.3\) in the standard normal table. Solve for \(x\): \[\ln(x) = 4Z + 10\] \[\ln(x) = 4(-0.524) + 10 = 7.904\] Convert back to \(x\): \[x = e^{7.904} \approx 2693\].
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Standard Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution is a fundamental concept in statistics. It forms the backbone of many probability calculations.
The standard normal distribution, denoted as \( N(0,1) \), has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. It is symmetrically bell-shaped with 68% of the area under the curve falling within one standard deviation from the mean, 95% within two, and 99.7% within three.
When any normal distribution is converted into a standard normal distribution, it simplifies complex calculations by mapping scores on a common scale.To transform a given normal variable \( X \) with mean \( \mu \) and standard deviation \( \sigma \) into a standard normal variable \( Z \), the formula is as follows:
The standard normal distribution, denoted as \( N(0,1) \), has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. It is symmetrically bell-shaped with 68% of the area under the curve falling within one standard deviation from the mean, 95% within two, and 99.7% within three.
When any normal distribution is converted into a standard normal distribution, it simplifies complex calculations by mapping scores on a common scale.To transform a given normal variable \( X \) with mean \( \mu \) and standard deviation \( \sigma \) into a standard normal variable \( Z \), the formula is as follows:
- \[ Z = \frac{(X - \mu)}{\sigma} \]
Probability Calculations
Probability calculations are a key part of understanding statistical distributions. When dealing with normal distributions, probabilities represent the likelihood of a random variable falling below, above, or between certain values.
The standard normal distribution has designated tables, often called Z-tables, which provide the cumulative probability of a standard normal variable \( Z \) being less than a specified value. This is invaluable for deriving probabilities related to real-world data.For instance, to compute \( P(X < 2000) \) for a lognormal distribution, we first convert \( X \) to a standard normal variable \( Z \), using logarithms:
The standard normal distribution has designated tables, often called Z-tables, which provide the cumulative probability of a standard normal variable \( Z \) being less than a specified value. This is invaluable for deriving probabilities related to real-world data.For instance, to compute \( P(X < 2000) \) for a lognormal distribution, we first convert \( X \) to a standard normal variable \( Z \), using logarithms:
- Calculate the logarithm of the desired value: \( \ln(2000) \)
- Standardize using \[ Z = \frac{\ln(2000) - 10}{4} \]
- Locate \( P(Z < -0.6) \) using the Z-table
Statistical Distribution Transformations
Statistical distribution transformations are essential methods for analyzing data that follows distributions other than the standard normal distribution, like the lognormal distribution. A lognormal distribution implies that while the data itself is skewed, its logarithm follows a normal distribution.
To solve problems related to lognormal distributions, we often perform transformations to convert skewed data into a normal form. This linearizes data, making it amenable to familiar statistical techniques.
The transformation process involves:
To solve problems related to lognormal distributions, we often perform transformations to convert skewed data into a normal form. This linearizes data, making it amenable to familiar statistical techniques.
The transformation process involves:
- Finding the natural logarithm of the variable, converting it into a normal distribution \( \ln(X) \)
- Standardizing this normal variable using its respective mean and standard deviation
- Using these standardized forms to compute probabilities and percentiles