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Calls to the help line of a large computer distributor follow a Poisson distribution with a mean of 20 calls per minute. Determine the following: (a) Mean time until the one-hundredth call (b) Mean time between call numbers 50 and 80 (c) Probability that three or more calls occur within 15 seconds

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 5 minutes (b) 1.5 minutes (c) Use Poisson distribution to find the probability.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Poisson Process

The Poisson process is used to model the occurrence of events happening independently over a period of time. With a mean of 20 calls per minute, this is given by rate parameter \( \lambda = 20 \). This parameter represents the average rate of occurrence.
02

Calculate Mean Time for One-Hundredth Call

The time until the nth call in a Poisson process follows a gamma distribution with parameters \( n \) (the number of calls) and \( \lambda \) (mean rate). The mean time for the one-hundredth call is computed as \( \frac{100}{20} = 5 \) minutes. Hence, the mean time is 5 minutes.
03

Determine Mean Time Between 50th and 80th Call

The time between the 50th and 80th call is also a gamma distribution problem with \( n = 30 \) calls. The mean time is given by \( \frac{30}{20} = 1.5 \) minutes. Hence, the mean time is 1.5 minutes.
04

Calculate Probability of Three or More Calls in 15 Seconds

Convert the time to minutes: 15 seconds is \( \frac{1}{4} \) minute, which is 0.25 minutes. Calculate the expected number of calls in 0.25 minutes: \( 20 \times 0.25 = 5 \). The probability of three or more calls follows the Poisson distribution: \( P(X \geq 3) = 1 - (P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)) \). Using the formula for Poisson probability, find \( P(X=k) = \frac{e^{-5} 5^k}{k!} \) for each k, then solve.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Gamma Distribution
The gamma distribution is a continuous probability distribution that is frequently employed in queuing models and processes such as the time until a certain event happens. In the context of the Poisson distribution, when we are interested in the time until the nth event occurs, we use the gamma distribution.
In the exercise provided, if we want to find the mean time until the one-hundredth call, we are looking at a gamma distribution with parameters \( n = 100 \) calls and \( \lambda = 20 \) calls per minute. The gamma distribution can describe the time between events in a Poisson process. This is why we use it here to solve for these time intervals.
The mean of a gamma distribution is given by \( \frac{n}{\lambda} \). Therefore, for the one-hundredth call, the mean time is \( \frac{100}{20} = 5 \) minutes. For other sets of calls, such as between the 50th and 80th call, it's similarly calculated by \( n = 30 \) calls, giving a mean time of \( \frac{30}{20} = 1.5 \) minutes.
Rate Parameter Lambda
The rate parameter \( \lambda \) in a Poisson distribution is crucial as it defines how the events are distributed over time. In this context, \( \lambda \) represents the mean number of occurrences within a specified interval.
For the helpline example, \( \lambda \) is given as 20 calls per minute. This tells us that on average, the helpline receives 20 calls every minute, which serves as the basis for all subsequent calculations.
When solving problems that involve the Poisson distribution, always identify your \( \lambda \). It forms the foundation for calculating the probabilities and means. For instance, in questions involving the timing of events such as the mean time until the nth call, \( \lambda \) is a critical component in determining these intervals, using equations derived from the gamma distribution.
Mean Time Calculations
Calculating the mean time in problems involving Poisson distribution often requires converting the situation into a form that uses the gamma distribution. In this distribution, the mean time is calculated based on the number of events required (\( n \)) and the rate \( \lambda \).
Using the formula for the mean of a gamma distribution \( \frac{n}{\lambda} \):
  • For the one-hundredth call with \( n = 100 \), the mean time is \( \frac{100}{20} = 5 \) minutes.
  • To find the mean time between the 50th and 80th call, use \( n = 80 - 50 = 30 \), giving a mean of \( \frac{30}{20} = 1.5 \) minutes.
These calculations highlight how to efficiently determine expected times between occurrences when events are distributed following a Poisson process.
Probability Calculations
To determine probabilities in Poisson processes, you often calculate the likelihood of a number of events occurring within a certain timeframe. The exercise asks for the probability of three or more calls within 15 seconds.
First, convert this time to minutes: 15 seconds is \( \frac{15}{60} = 0.25 \) minutes. Calculate the expected number of calls during this period as \( \lambda \times 0.25 = 5 \). This means we expect around 5 calls in a quarter of a minute.
The probability of three or more calls can be found by calculating the sum of probabilities \( P(X \geq 3) = 1 - (P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)) \). For each \( k \), the Poisson probability is \( P(X=k) = \frac{e^{-5} \cdot 5^k}{k!} \). Calculating these values and summing them gives the probability of the events occurring as specified.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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