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Cabs pass your workplace according to a Poisson process with a mean of five cabs per hour. (a) Determine the mean and standard deviation of the number of cabs per 10 -hour day. (b) Approximate the probability that more than 65 cabs pass within a 10 -hour day. (c) Approximate the probability that between 50 and 65 cabs pass in a 10 -hour day. (d) Determine the mean hourly rate so that the probability is approximately 0.95 that 100 or more cabs pass in a 10-hour data.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Mean: 50, Std Dev: 7.07. (b) Probability >65 cabs: 0.017. (c) Probability 50-65 cabs: 0.483. (d) Mean rate: 9.13 cabs/hour.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Mean of Poisson Distribution

The mean rate (\( \lambda \)) of the Poisson process is given as 5 cabs per hour. For a 10-hour day, the mean becomes \( \lambda = 5 \times 10 = 50 \)cabs.
02

Calculate Standard Deviation

The standard deviation of a Poisson process is the square root of the mean. So, for a mean \( \lambda = 50 \) cabs, the standard deviation is \( \sqrt{50} \approx 7.07 \).
03

Mean and Standard Deviation Solution

The mean and standard deviation for the number of cabs in a 10-hour day are 50 and approximately 7.07, respectively.
04

Set Up Normal Approximation for (b)

To approximate the probability that more than 65 cabs pass, use the normal distribution with mean \( 50 \) and standard deviation \( 7.07 \). The question asks for \( P(X > 65) \).
05

Find Z-score for 65 Cabs

Calculate the Z-score using \( Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \). Substitute \( X = 65 \), \( \mu = 50 \), \( \sigma = 7.07 \): \( Z = \frac{65 - 50}{7.07} \approx 2.12 \).
06

Determine Probability Using Z-Table

Find \( P(Z > 2.12) \) using the standard normal distribution table. The probability is approximately \( 0.017 \) or 1.7%.
07

Probability More Than 65 Cabs

The probability that more than 65 cabs pass in a 10-hour day is approximately 0.017.
08

Set Up Normal Approximation for (c)

To approximate the probability that between 50 and 65 cabs pass, calculate \( P(50 < X < 65) \) using the normal approximation.
09

Find Z-scores for 50 and 65 Cabs

Calculate the Z-score for 50 using \( Z = \frac{50 - 50}{7.07} = 0 \) and for 65 using \( Z = \frac{65 - 50}{7.07} \approx 2.12 \).
10

Determine Probability Using Z-Table for Range

Find \( P(0 < Z < 2.12) = P(Z < 2.12) - P(Z < 0) \). From the Z-table, \( P(Z < 2.12) \approx 0.983 \) and \( P(Z < 0) = 0.5 \).
11

Probability Between 50 and 65 Cabs

The probability that between 50 and 65 cabs pass in a 10-hour day is approximately \( 0.983 - 0.5 = 0.483 \) or 48.3%.
12

Determine Rate for Probability of 100 Cabs

For question (d), let the new mean be \( \mu \). We need \( P(X \ge 100) \approx 0.05 \). Using the normal distribution approximation, we find the Z-score that corresponds to the upper 5% which is approximately 1.645.
13

Calculate Mean for Desired Probability

Set \( \frac{100 - \mu}{\sqrt{\mu}} = 1.645 \). Solve the equation for \( \mu \).
14

Final Calculation for Mean Rate

Rearrange and solve \( 100 - \mu = 1.645 \sqrt{\mu} \). Substitute \( x = \sqrt{\mu} \) so that the equation becomes \( x^2 + 1.645x - 100 = 0 \). Solve this quadratic equation for \( x \) and then \( \mu \).
15

Solution for Hourly Rate Calculation

When solving the quadratic equation, approximate \( \mu \approx 91.29 \). The mean hourly rate is approximately \( 9.13 \) cabs per hour.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean and Standard Deviation
The first step in understanding the Poisson distribution for this problem is to calculate the mean and standard deviation, which are fundamental statistical measures.
The mean, denoted by \( \lambda \), represents the average rate at which events occur.
For a Poisson process where cabs pass by at a rate of 5 cabs per hour, determining the mean for a longer period, like a 10-hour day, involves multiplying the hourly mean by the number of hours: \( \lambda = 5 \times 10 = 50 \) cabs.
  • **Mean**, \( \lambda = 50 \) cabs for a 10-hour day.
The standard deviation gives us an idea of the dispersion or spread of the data around the mean. For a Poisson distribution, the standard deviation is the square root of the mean.
Therefore, for our mean of 50 cabs, the standard deviation is \( \sqrt{50} \approx 7.07 \) cabs.
  • **Standard Deviation**, \( \sqrt{50} \approx 7.07 \).
Normal Approximation
When working with Poisson distributions, especially with a large mean, an effective technique is the normal approximation.
This approach simplifies calculations by using the normal distribution as a proxy.
For the problem at hand, we approximate the Poisson distribution with a normal distribution with a mean (\( \mu \)) of 50 cabs and a standard deviation (\( \sigma \)) of approximately 7.07 cabs.
  • This allows us to apply continuous distribution methods to estimate probabilities.
  • It's essential especially when calculating probabilities that are not straightforward.
This approximation becomes more accurate as the mean of the Poisson distribution increases, due to the Central Limit Theorem which assures that with a large enough mean, the discrete Poisson distribution begins to resemble a continuous normal distribution more closely.
Z-score Calculation
Z-score is a measure of how many standard deviations an element is from the mean.
It is a critical concept when utilizing normal approximation to find probabilities.
For instance, calculating the probability of more than a certain number of cabs requires finding the Z-score for that number.
Using the formula \( Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \), where \( X \) is the number of cabs, you can compute the Z-score.
  • For example, to find the Z-score for 65 cabs: \( Z = \frac{65 - 50}{7.07} \approx 2.12 \).
  • This Z-score tells us that 65 cabs are 2.12 standard deviations above the mean number of cabs per 10 hours.
This score is then used to lookup probabilities in the standard normal distribution table, enabling further probability analysis.
Probability Estimation
Once the Z-score is calculated, the next step is estimating the probability from the standard normal distribution.
This involves finding the area under the normal curve related to the Z-score.
The Z-score can be used to find cumulative probabilities from standard normal distribution tables (Z-tables).
  • For a Z-score of 2.12, using Z-tables, \( P(Z > 2.12) \approx 0.017 \) or 1.7%.
  • This probability estimates that there is a 1.7% chance more than 65 cabs will pass in a 10-hour period.
Additionally, estimating probabilities for a range, like between 50 and 65 cabs, involves subtracting cumulative probabilities found for each Z-score: \( P(0 < Z < 2.12) = P(Z < 2.12) - P(Z < 0) \).
This practical method leverages the Z-table data to deduce probabilities effectively and efficiently.

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