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Suppose that the number of asbestos particles in a sample of 1 squared centimeter of dust is a Poisson random variable with a mean of 1000 . What is the probability that 10 squared centimeters of dust contains more than 10,000 particles?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of having more than 10,000 particles in 10 cm² of dust is 0.498.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Problem

We have a Poisson random variable that represents the number of particles per square centimeter with a mean \( \lambda = 1000 \). The problem asks for the probability that more than 10,000 particles are found in 10 cm² of dust.
02

Adjust the Mean for Larger Area

Since we are considering 10 cm² and the mean number of particles per cm² is 1000, the mean number of particles for 10 cm² will be: \( \lambda = 10 \times 1000 = 10000 \).
03

Set Up the Probability Expression

We need to find the probability that there are more than 10,000 particles, so we calculate \( P(X > 10000) \) for \( X \sim \text{Poisson}(10000) \).
04

Use Normal Approximation

For large \( \lambda \), a Poisson distribution can be approximated by a normal distribution. Here, since \( \lambda = 10000 \) is large, approximate using a normal with mean \( \mu = 10000 \) and standard deviation \( \sigma = \sqrt{10000} = 100 \).
05

Calculate Z-score

To use the normal approximation, find the z-score for 10000: \( Z = \frac{10000 - 10000}{100} = 0 \). However, since we need to calculate \( P(X > 10000) \), we adjust for continuity and compute \( Z = \frac{10000.5 - 10000}{100} = 0.005 \).
06

Find Probability Using Z-score Table

Lookup the z-score (0.005) in a standard normal distribution table. The probability of \( Z < 0.005 \) is approximately 0.502. For \( P(X > 10000) = P(Z > 0.005) \), it equals \( 1 - 0.502 = 0.498 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Approximation
When dealing with Poisson distributions, especially with large means, computations can become overwhelming. This is where the concept of Normal Approximation comes into play. When the average rate \(\lambda\) is large, the Poisson distribution closely resembles a normal distribution. This allows us to use the simpler normal distribution to estimate probabilities. The rule of thumb is that Normal Approximation becomes viable when \( \lambda \) is greater than 20. Here, the Poisson mean of 10000 is large enough to justify this approximation. We use the same mean \( \mu = \lambda \) and the standard deviation \( \sigma = \sqrt{\lambda} \), converting our Poisson problem into an equivalent Normal distribution problem. This simplification lets us leverage standard normal distribution tools to calculate probabilities efficiently.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation in this problem is pivotal to finding the answer using the normal approximation. The original problem requires finding the probability that more than 10,000 particles are in 10 square centimeters of dust.
To calculate \( P(X > 10000) \), we adopt the Normal Approximation method once we have established the appropriate mean and standard deviation. This assessment directly utilizes the normal distribution properties. We first approximate the Poisson distribution to be normal with these same parameters, i.e., \( \mu = 10000 \) and \( \sigma = \sqrt{10000} = 100 \). By evaluating \( P(X > 10000) \), we essentially determine the likelihood of having a higher count of particles using a continuous probability distribution model. This transformation simplifies statistical calculations and narrows down the problem to a more manageable form.
Z-score
The Z-score is a crucial statistical tool that allows us to determine the position of a value within a probability distribution. First, calculate the Z-score to understand how far a particular value is from the mean in terms of standard deviations.
In our problem, we need to calculate the Z-score for \( X = 10000 \). Initially, \( Z = \frac{10000 - 10000}{100} = 0 \). However, we implement a continuity correction since the normal approximation is for continuous values, whereas Poisson is discrete.
Adjusting for continuity to compute \( P(X > 10000) \), we actually find the probability for \( P(X > 10000.5) \). Hence, we calculate the Z-score as \( Z = \frac{10000.5 - 10000}{100} = 0.005 \). The final step involves looking up this Z-score value in a standard normal distribution table, showing that this calculated probability relates to the cumulative probability of \( Z < 0.005 \) which is approximately 0.502. Thus, \( P(X > 10000) = P(Z > 0.005) \) results in 0.498, completing the probability calculation using the standard normal distribution.

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