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The fill volume of an automated filling machine used for filling cans of carbonated beverage is normally distributed with a mean of 12.4 fluid ounces and a standard deviation of 0.1 fluid ounce. (a) What is the probability that a fill volume is less than 12 fluid ounces? (b) If all cans less than 12.1 or greater than 12.6 ounces are scrapped, what proportion of cans is scrapped? (c) Determine specifications that are symmetric about the mean that include \(99 \%\) of all cans.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Probability is approximately 0. (b) Proportion scrapped is 2.41%. (c) Specifications: 12.1424 to 12.6576 ounces.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We have a normal distribution with mean \( \mu = 12.4 \) ounces and standard deviation \( \sigma = 0.1 \) ounces. We need to find probabilities related to this distribution for various scenarios given.
02

Standardize the Variable (Part a)

To find the probability that a fill volume is less than 12 ounces, we first standardize the variable. Calculate the z-score: \[ z = \frac{12 - 12.4}{0.1} = -4.0 \].
03

Calculate Probability from Z-score (Part a)

Using the z-score of -4.0, look up this z-score in the standard normal distribution table or use a calculator to find the probability \( P(Z < -4.0) \), which is practically 0 (very close to 0 as it is far into the tail).
04

Standardize the Variables (Part b)

For scrapped cans, calculate the z-scores for 12.1 and 12.6 ounces: \[ z_{12.1} = \frac{12.1 - 12.4}{0.1} = -3 \] and \[ z_{12.6} = \frac{12.6 - 12.4}{0.1} = 2 \].
05

Calculate Proportion of Cans Scrapped (Part b)

Find \( P(Z < -3) \) and \( P(Z > 2) \) using standard normal distribution tables or calculator. \( P(Z < -3) \) ≈ 0.0013 and \( P(Z > 2) \) ≈ 0.0228. Total proportion scrapped is \( P(Z < -3) + P(Z > 2) \) = 0.0241 or 2.41%.
06

Identify Specifications for 99% Confidence Interval (Part c)

To include 99% of all cans, find the z-scores that cut off 0.5% on each tail of the distribution. These are approximately \( z = -2.576 \) and \( z = 2.576 \).
07

Calculate Fill Volume Specifications (Part c)

Convert the z-scores back to fill volumes: the lower specification is \( 12.4 + (-2.576)(0.1) = 12.1424 \) and the upper specification is \( 12.4 + (2.576)(0.1) = 12.6576 \). These specifications will include 99% of all cans.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Z-Score
The z-score is a crucial concept when dealing with the normal distribution. It allows us to standardize different values, making it easier to perform probability calculations. A z-score tells us how many standard deviations a value is from the mean. For example, if you have a z-score of -4.0, this means that the data point is 4 standard deviations below the mean.
This standardization helps us interpret where the data lies within the context of the normal distribution. By converting raw scores into z-scores, we can then use z-tables, a standard normal distribution table, or statistical software to find probabilities associated with the scores.
This concept becomes particularly useful in real-world applications like quality control or assessing unusual occurrences in datasets.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation in the context of normal distributions often involves finding the likelihood of certain events. Using z-scores, we find the area under the curve of the normal distribution that falls to the left or right of a given z-score value. These areas represent probabilities.
In our exercise, we calculated the probability of a fill volume being less than 12 fluid ounces. With a z-score of -4.0, we used the standard normal distribution to find its probability, which was close to 0, indicating an extremely rare occurrence.
Additionally, understanding how to calculate the total proportion of scrapped cans required computing probabilities for both tails, which involves summing up individual probabilities. This was done by finding the probabilities of being less than 12.1 and greater than 12.6 fluid ounces, leading to a total proportion of 2.41%.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation, denoted by \( \sigma \), is a measure of dispersion in a dataset. It quantifies how spread out the values are around the mean. A smaller standard deviation indicates that the values are clustered closely around the mean, while a larger one suggests more spread.
In the context of our problem, the standard deviation is given as 0.1 fluid ounces. This small value shows that most fill volumes remain close to the mean of 12.4 fluid ounces. It provides insight into the consistency of the filling machine's performance.
When calculating z-scores, standard deviation plays a key role. It is used in the denominator of the z-score formula, \( z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma} \), normalizing the data and making them comparable across different contexts and datasets.
Mean
The mean, often denoted as \( \mu \), is a measure of central tendency that gives us the average of a set of values. It is calculated by summing all the values and dividing by the number of values.
In our exercise, the mean fill volume is 12.4 fluid ounces, serving as the center of our normal distribution. This central value helps define the shape and symmetry of the distribution curve.
The mean not only provides the midpoint of the data set, it also serves as a baseline in statistical calculations, including the standard deviation and z-score. Recognizing its importance, manufacturers adjust their processes to stay close to this mean to ensure consistency and quality in production.

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