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The life (in hours) of a computer processing unit (CPU) is modeled by a Weibull distribution with parameters \(\beta=3\) and \(\delta=900\) hours. (a) Determine the mean life of the CPU. (b) Determine the variance of the life of the CPU. (c) What is the probability that the CPU fails before 500 hours?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 803.7 hours; (b) 429,660 hours; (c) Probability is 0.1576.

Step by step solution

01

Determine the Mean Life

The mean of a Weibull distribution is calculated using the formula \( \mu = \delta \cdot \Gamma\left(1 + \frac{1}{\beta}\right) \). Here, \( \beta = 3 \) and \( \delta = 900 \) hours. The gamma function \( \Gamma(1 + 1/3) \) calculates to approximately 0.893. Therefore, \( \mu = 900 \times 0.893 \approx 803.7 \) hours.
02

Determine the Variance

The variance of a Weibull distribution is given by \( \sigma^2 = \delta^2 \left( \Gamma\left(1 + \frac{2}{\beta}\right) - \Gamma^2\left(1 + \frac{1}{\beta}\right) \right) \). Calculating \( \Gamma(1 + 2/3) \approx 1.329 \), the variance \( \sigma^2 = 900^2 (1.329 - 0.893^2) = 900^2 (1.329 - 0.797) = 900^2 (0.532) = 429,660 \) hours.
03

Calculate the Probability of Failure before 500 hours

The cumulative distribution function (CDF) for a Weibull distribution is \( F(x) = 1 - e^{-(x/\delta)^\beta} \). For \( x = 500 \), \( \beta = 3 \), and \( \delta = 900 \):\[ F(500) = 1 - e^{-(500/900)^3} \].\( (500/900)^3 = 0.1715 \), so \( F(500) = 1 - e^{-0.1715} \approx 1 - 0.8424 = 0.1576 \). Thus, the probability that the CPU fails before 500 hours is approximately 0.1576.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean Life
One of the key aspects when analyzing a Weibull distribution is determining the mean life of a device, like a computer processing unit (CPU). In this context, the mean life represents the average time until failure or breakdown of the CPU. The formula used to calculate the mean life from a Weibull distribution is:\[\mu = \delta \cdot \Gamma\left(1 + \frac{1}{\beta}\right)\]where:
  • \(\delta\) is the scale parameter which influences the distribution's width, set at 900 hours in this problem.
  • \(\beta\) is the shape parameter that dictates the distribution's form, given as 3.
  • \(\Gamma\) represents the gamma function, a crucial mathematical function that generalizes factorial operations to real and complex numbers.
To solve this for the given CPU example:
1. We calculate \( \Gamma(1 + \frac{1}{3}) \), which is approximately 0.893.2. Substitute into the formula: \[ \mu = 900 \times 0.893 \approx 803.7 \text{ hours} \]Thus, the mean life of the CPU is approximately 803.7 hours. This means on average, the device will fail around this time.
Variance Calculation
In statistics, variance is a measure of the dispersion or spread of a set of values. For a Weibull distribution, calculating variance helps understand how much the CPU life deviates from the mean life. The formula to compute variance \(\sigma^2\) for a Weibull distribution is:\[\sigma^2 = \delta^2 \left( \Gamma\left(1 + \frac{2}{\beta}\right) - \Gamma^2\left(1 + \frac{1}{\beta}\right) \right)\]In this exercise, we perform the following steps to determine the variance:
1. Calculate \( \Gamma\left(1 + \frac{2}{\beta}\right) \). For \(\beta = 3\), this gives us \(\Gamma(1 + \frac{2}{3}) \approx 1.329\).2. Note that \( \Gamma\left(1 + \frac{1}{\beta}\right) = 0.893 \) from the previous mean life calculation.3. Substitute the values into the variance formula: \[ \sigma^2 = 900^2 \left(1.329 - 0.893^2\right) = 900^2 \times 0.532 = 429,660 \text{ hours}^2 \]This variance tells us how widely the life spans of the CPUs might vary when compared to the mean. Larger variance indicates a wider range of lifetimes around the average.
Probability of Failure
The probability of failure quantifies the likelihood that a CPU will fail before a specific time. To calculate this using a Weibull distribution, we employ the cumulative distribution function (CDF), which is:\[F(x) = 1 - e^{-(x/\delta)^\beta}\]Here, we want to find the probability that the CPU will fail before 500 hours:
  • \(x\): Desired time for failure probability (500 hours).
  • \(\beta\): Shape parameter (3).
  • \(\delta\): Scale parameter (900 hours).
Follow these steps:
1. Compute \((500/900)^3\). This is approximately 0.1715.2. Substitute into the CDF formula: \[ F(500) = 1 - e^{-0.1715} \approx 1 - 0.8424 = 0.1576 \]This result, 0.1576, is the probability that the CPU will fail before reaching 500 hours. Or, you could say there is a about 15.76% chance of failure before this time.

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