/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 163 In the manufacturing of a chemic... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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In the manufacturing of a chemical adhesive, \(3 \%\) of all batches have raw materials from two different lots. This occurs when holding tanks are replenished and the remaining portion of a lot is insufficient to fill the tanks. Only \(5 \%\) of batches with material from a single lot require reprocessing. However, the viscosity of batches consisting of two or more lots of material is more difficult to control, and \(40 \%\) of such batches require additional processing to achieve the required viscosity. Let \(A\) denote the event that a batch is formed from two different lots, and let \(B\) denote the event that a lot requires additional processing. Determine the following probabilities: (a) \(P(A)\) (b) \(P\left(A^{\prime}\right)\) (c) \(P(B \mid A)\) (d) \(P\left(B \mid A^{\prime}\right)\) (e) \(P(A \cap B)\) (f) \(P\left(A \cap B^{\prime}\right)\) (g) \(P(B)\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 0.03, (b) 0.97, (c) 0.40, (d) 0.05, (e) 0.012, (f) 0.018, (g) 0.0605

Step by step solution

01

Define Events and Probabilities

Let's first define the given probabilities:\- Event \(A\): A batch is formed from two different lots with \(P(A) = 0.03\).\ - The complement event \(A'\): A batch is formed from a single lot, thus \(P(A') = 1 - P(A) = 0.97\).\ - Event \(B \mid A\): A batch from two different lots requires reprocessing, \(P(B \mid A) = 0.40\).\ - Event \(B \mid A'\): A batch from a single lot requires reprocessing, \(P(B \mid A') = 0.05\).
02

Calculate Joint Probability P(A ∩ B)

The probability that a batch requires reprocessing and is made from two lots is calculated using the formula:\ \[P(A \cap B) = P(B \mid A) \times P(A)\]\Substitute the values we know:\\(P(A \cap B) = 0.40 \times 0.03 = 0.012\).
03

Calculate Joint Probability P(A' ∩ B)

The probability that a batch requires reprocessing and is made from a single lot can be calculated with:\ \[P(A' \cap B) = P(B \mid A') \times P(A')\]\Substituting the values gives:\\(P(A' \cap B) = 0.05 \times 0.97 = 0.0485\).
04

Calculate Total Probability of Reprocessing P(B)

To find the probability that any batch requires reprocessing, we sum the probabilities of the mutually exclusive events \(A\) and \(A'\),\ \[P(B) = P(A \cap B) + P(A' \cap B)\]\Calculate:\\(P(B) = 0.012 + 0.0485 = 0.0605\).
05

Calculate P(A ∩ B') and P(A’ ∩ B')

We can find probabilities of complementary events: \(P(A \cap B') = P(A) - P(A \cap B) = 0.03 - 0.012 = 0.018\)\ \(P(A' \cap B') = P(A') - P(A' \cap B) = 0.97 - 0.0485 = 0.9215\)
06

Overview of Calculated Probabilities

With these calculations, we have:(a) \(P(A) = 0.03\)(b) \(P(A') = 0.97\)(c) \(P(B \mid A) = 0.40\)(d) \(P(B \mid A') = 0.05\)(e) \(P(A \cap B) = 0.012\)(f) \(P(A \cap B') = 0.018\)(g) \(P(B) = 0.0605\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Complementary Events
Complementary events refer to a pair of outcomes where the sum of their probabilities is equal to 1. In the given problem, the events involve batches formed from different or a single lot of raw material. Here, event \(A\) indicates that a batch is formed from two different lots, which has a probability \(P(A) = 0.03\). The complementary event \(A'\) describes the situation where a batch is formed from a single lot. The probability of this complementary event is given by \(P(A') = 1 - P(A)\). Thus, if the chance of selecting different lots is \(3\%\), the probability of choosing from a single lot naturally becomes \(97\%\). By understanding complementary events, you can efficiently analyze a given set of probabilities by focusing only on one of the outcomes, knowing that the other is simply the subtraction from 1. This mathematic principle helps divide any scenario into manageable parts.
Joint Probability
Joint probability involves calculating the likelihood of two events happening at the same time. In probability terms, we often see this represented as \(P(A \cap B)\), which reads as the probability of both event \(A\) and event \(B\) occurring. In the context of our manufacturing exercise, event \(A\) is when a batch is drawn from two lots, and event \(B\) is when it requires additional processing. The joint probability \(P(A \cap B)\) is derived by multiplying the probability of \(B\) given \(A\) \(( P(B | A) )\), by the probability of \(A\). Here, \(P(B | A) = 0.40\) and \(P(A) = 0.03\). Therefore, \(P(A \cap B) = 0.40 \times 0.03 = 0.012\). These calculations describe the real-world scenario where both conditions are true—viscosity issues in batches from mixed lots that need reprocessing. Mastering joint probability allows us to better understand complex, occurring simultaneous events, ensuring accurate probabilistic predictions of such shared outcomes.
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability assesses the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. Notated as \(P(B | A)\), it measures how the occurrence of event \(A\) influences the likelihood of event \(B\). For instance, let's look at the adhesive production problem: event \(A\) happens when using two different lots, and event \(B\) when reprocessing is needed. Here, \(P(B | A) = 0.40\) signifies a \(40\%\) chance of reprocessing if dual lots form the batch. Meanwhile, \(P(B | A') = 0.05\) shows a \(5\%\) chance of reprocessing with single-lot batches. Highlighting the difference in conditional probabilities, we learn that making batches from different lots significantly raises reprocessing needs due to viscosity issues. Essentially, conditional probability gives insight into how one event shapes the fate of another, offering essential analysis for decisions hinging on multiple interconnected variables.

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