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Fifty people are selected at random. What is the probability that none of the people in this group have the same birthday?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that none of the 50 people have the same birthday is approximately 0.03 or 3%. This is calculated using the formula \( \frac{365! / (365-50)!}{365^{50}}\).

Step by step solution

01

Determine Possible Outcomes

There are 365 days in a year, thus a person can have their birthday on any of these days. As we don't have any restrictions on multiple people having the same birthday, for each of the 50 people there are 365 possibilities. Hence, the total number of ways for 50 people to have birthdays is \(365^{50}\).
02

Determine Desired Outcomes

In figuring the number of arrangements where all 50 people have different birthdays, for the first person there are 365 choices, for the next person there would be 364 choices left (as their birth date must be different from the first person's), for the third person there would be 363 choices, and so on until the 50th person for whom there'd be 316 choices remaining. This results in total arrangements with different birthdays as \(365*364*363*...*316\).
03

Calculate the Probability

The probability of an event is the number of ways the event can happen divided by the total number of possible outcomes. Hence, the probability that no two people out of the 50 have the same birthday is \(\frac{365*364*363*...*316}{365^{50}}\). It's practical to use factorial notation and write this result as \( \frac{365! / (365-50)!}{365^{50}}\).
04

Simplify the Result

To get the final answer, we'll simplify the result calculated in the previous step. This involves a bit of calculation which is easier done with a calculator. The approximation of this probability is about 0.03, or 3% probability that none of the 50 people have the same birthday.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculation
Probability calculation is a powerful tool that helps us understand the likelihood of events occurring. In the context of the Birthday Paradox, we use probability to determine the chance that none of the people in a group of fifty have the same birthday. To calculate probability, we take the number of successful outcomes and divide it by the total number of possible outcomes. For the Birthday Paradox, successful outcomes are those where all 50 individuals have distinct birthdays. This calculation involves dividing the number of ways all birthdays can be different by the total number of ways birthdays could be distributed without restriction.
This gives us the probability expressed as a fraction which can then be simplified to understand the likelihood as a percentage. The use of approximations often helps to convey probability in clearer terms, such as estimating a 0.03 or 3% chance that no two people share the same birthday among 50 people.
Factorial Notation
Factorial notation is a mathematical notation used to simplify expressions, especially when dealing with permutations and combinations. It's denoted by an exclamation mark (!). For example, 5! means five factorial, which is the product of all positive integers from 1 to 5: 5! = 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1. Factorials grow very quickly, which makes them useful for calculations involving large numbers of possibilities.
In the Birthday Paradox, factorial notation helps compactly represent the decreasing number of choices available as we assign each person's birthday. For the 50 individuals, we use the expression \(365 \times 364 \times 363 \times ... \times 316\)\ to denote the possible choices for distinct birthdays. Factorial notation allows these calculations to be simplified considerably by expressing them as \( \frac{365!}{(365-50)!} \)\, making it easier to carry out the calculations either manually or through software tools.
Combinatorics
Combinatorics is the branch of mathematics that deals with counting, arranging, and finding patterns. It's a fundamental tool in understanding problems like the Birthday Paradox because it allows us to systematically count how events can occur, especially in large groups.
The stepwise approach seen in the exercise solution relies heavily on combinatorial principles. By recognizing that each subsequent choice for a birthday reduces the available options, we use combinatorial counting to establish the number of different ways events occur without repetition. This systematic process is crucial for accurately determining probabilities. Understanding combinatorics equips you with the ability to tackle complex problems involving arrangements and selections, such as calculating the likelihood of unique birthdays among a group of people.
Discrete Mathematics
Discrete mathematics involves studying mathematical structures that are distinct and separate, unlike continuous mathematics which deals with structures that smoothly change. This field underpins many of the methods utilized in the Birthday Paradox problem, including probability and combinatorics. It includes topics like set theory, graph theory, and, importantly for this context, permutations and combinations.
Discrete mathematics is critical when we deal with countable, often finite sets of possibilities, such as the 365 potential days a birthday can occur in a year. By using discrete mathematical methods, we can logically deduce and calculate probabilities, ensuring precision in our results. In the Birthday Paradox, applying discrete mathematics ensures that each step of counting birthdays, applying factorials, and calculating probabilities is done methodically and accurately, providing a coherent solution to complex real-world counting problems.

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