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For the bivariate normal distribution with parameters \(\mu_{1}=50, \mu_{2}=100, \sigma_{1}=3, \sigma_{2}=4,\) and \(\rho_{12}=.80\) a. Sute the characteristics of the marginal distribution of \(Y_{1}\) b. State the characteristics of the conditional distribution of \(Y_{2}\) when \(Y_{1}=55\) c. State the characteristics of the conditional distribution of \(Y_{1}\) when \(Y_{2}=95\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. \(Y_{1}\sim N(50, 9)\)b. \(Y_{2}|Y_{1}=55 \sim N(106.67, 6.4)\)c. \(Y_{1}|Y_{2}=95 \sim N(48, 1.44)\)

Step by step solution

01

Marginal Distribution of Y1

For any bivariate normal distribution, each variable follows a univariate normal distribution. Thus, the marginal distribution of \(Y_{1}\) is simply the normal distribution with mean and standard deviation given by the parameters corresponding to \(Y_{1}\). Therefore, the marginal distribution of \(Y_{1}\) can be characterized by its mean \(\mu_{1} = 50\) and variance \(\sigma_{1}^2 = 3^2 = 9\). Hence, \(Y_{1} \sim N(50, 9)\).
02

Conditional Distribution of Y2 when Y1=55

For the bivariate normal distribution, the conditional distribution of \(Y_{2}\) given \(Y_{1}=y_{1}\) is also a normal distribution. The mean and variance of this conditional distribution can be determined using the following formulas: \[ E(Y_{2}|Y_{1}=y_{1}) = \mu_{2} + \rho_{12}\frac{\sigma_{2}}{\sigma_{1}} (y_{1} - \mu_{1}) \] \[ Var(Y_{2}|Y_{1}=y_{1}) = \sigma_{2}^2 (1 - \rho_{12}^2) \] Using the given values: - Mean: \(100 + 0.8 \cdot \frac{4}{3} (55-50) = 106.67\) - Variance: \(4^2 (1-0.8^2) = 6.4\) Hence, the conditional distribution of \(Y_{2}\) given \(Y_{1}=55\) is \(N(106.67, 6.4)\).
03

Conditional Distribution of Y1 when Y2=95

Similarly, the conditional distribution of \(Y_{1}\) given \(Y_{2}=y_{2}\) can be characterized by the following formulas: \[ E(Y_{1}|Y_{2}=y_{2}) = \mu_{1} + \rho_{12}\frac{\sigma_{1}}{\sigma_{2}} (y_{2} - \mu_{2}) \] \[ Var(Y_{1}|Y_{2}=y_{2}) = \sigma_{1}^2 (1 - \rho_{12}^2) \] Using the given values: - Mean: \(50 + 0.8 \cdot \frac{3}{4} (95 - 100) = 48\) - Variance: \(3^2 (1-0.8^2) = 1.44\) Hence, the conditional distribution of \(Y_{1}\) given \(Y_{2}=95\) is \(N(48, 1.44)\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Marginal Distribution
In a bivariate normal distribution, each variable independently follows a normal distribution. This is referred to as the marginal distribution. Let's consider the variable \(Y_1\) from the exercise. Given the parameters \(渭_{1}=50\) and \(蟽_{1}=3\), we compute the variance as \(蟽_{1}^2 = 3^2 = 9\). Therefore, the marginal distribution of \(Y_1\) is given by \(Y_{1} \thicksim N(50, 9)\). This notation means \(Y_1\) is normally distributed with a mean of 50 and a variance of 9.
Understanding marginal distribution is crucial because it describes the behavior of one variable without considering its relationship with another. For \(Y2\) in the same bivariate distribution, similarly, the parameters would determine its own marginal distribution independently.
Conditional Distribution
In the context of a bivariate normal distribution, conditional distribution provides how one variable behaves when we know the value of another. For instance, knowing \(Y_{1}=55\), we can find the conditional distribution of \(Y_{2}\). The formulas used are:

1. Mean: \[ E(Y_{2}|Y_{1}=y_{1}) = 渭_{2} + 蟻_{12}\frac{蟽_{2}}{蟽_{1}} (y_{1} - 渭_{1}) \] 2. Variance: \[ Var(Y_{2}|Y_{1}=y_{1}) = 蟽_{2}^2 (1 - 蟻_{12}^2) \]
Using the given values, we find the conditional distribution of \(Y_2 | Y_1 = 55\) is \(N(106.67, 6.4)\).

In a similar way, knowing \(Y2\) can help us find the conditional distribution of \(Y1\). For instance, with \(Y_{2}=95\), we use:
1. Mean: \[ E(Y_{1}|Y_{2}=y_{2}) = 渭_{1} + 蟻_{12}\frac{蟽_{1}}{蟽_{2}} (y_{2} - 渭_{2}) \] 2. Variance: \[ Var(Y_{1}|Y_{2}=y_{2}) = 蟽_{1}^2 (1 - 蟻_{12}^2) \]
This computes to \(N(48, 1.44)\). Understanding these conditional distributions helps in analyzing one variable given information about another.
Normal Distribution
Normal distribution, also known as Gaussian distribution, is a fundamental concept in probability and statistics. It describes how values of a random variable are distributed. A normal distribution is symmetric around its mean, showing that data near the mean are more frequent in occurrence than data far from the mean.

Key characteristics of a normal distribution include:

  • Mean (渭): The central value around which the distribution is symmetric.
  • Variance (蟽虏): A measure of how far the values spread out from the mean.
  • Standard Deviation (蟽): The square root of the variance, providing a measure of the average distance from the mean.
To describe a normal distribution, we use the notation \(N(渭, 蟽虏)\). For example, \(Y_1 \thicksim N(50, 9)\) means that \(Y_1\) is normally distributed with a mean of 50 and a variance of 9.
This concept is essential when dealing with bivariate normal distributions, helping us understand the behavior of individual variables (marginal distribution) and the relationships between them (conditional distribution).
Variance
Variance is a statistic that quantifies the spread of a set of data points. In the context of normal distributions, variance tells us how much the values of a random variable deviate from the mean. It is calculated as the average of the squared differences from the mean.

This formula is used in the context of the bivariate normal distribution to understand the spread of both marginal and conditional distributions:

  • For any variable \(Y\), if its variance is \(蟽^2\), it measures the dispersion of \(Y\) around its mean \(渭\).
  • In conditional distributions, the variance changes based on the given value of the other variable.

For example, in our exercise:

  • The marginal variance of \(Y_1\) is \(蟽_1^2 = 9\).
  • The conditional variance of \(Y_2\) given \(Y_1=55\) is \(蟽_2^2 (1 - 蟻_{12}^2) = 6.4\).
  • The conditional variance of \(Y_1\) given \(Y_2=95\) is \(蟽_1^2 (1 - 蟻_{12}^2) = 1.44\).

Variance is crucial in statistics because it provides a numerical value of how data points differ from the mean, offering insights into data spread and reliability.
Mean
The mean of a distribution is essentially the average value. It's a central measure around which data points are spread. In the context of a normal distribution, the mean (denoted as 渭) is especially significant because it is the point where the distribution is most balanced and symmetric.

Key points about means in this exercise:

  • For the marginal distribution of \(Y1\), the mean is \(渭_1 = 50\).
  • For the conditional distribution of \(Y2\) given \(Y1=55\), the mean is calculated using the formula: \[ 渭_{conditional} = 渭_2 + 蟻_{12} \frac{蟽_2}{蟽_1} (Y_1 - 渭_1) \], resulting in 106.67.
  • For the conditional distribution of \(Y1\) given \(Y2=95\), the mean is \(50 + 0.8 \frac{3}{4} (-5) = 48\).

Understanding the mean helps in determining the central tendency of a variable and is foundational in understanding the behavior of normal and bivariate normal distributions.

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