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Use both tree diagrams and Bayes' formula to solve the problems. In a certain population of \(48 \%\) men and \(52 \%\) women, \(56 \%\) of the men and \(8 \%\) of the women are color-blind. a. What percent of the people are color-blind? b. If a person is found to be color-blind, what is the probability that the person is a male?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) The percentage of people that are color-blind in this population is 31.04%. b) If a person is found to be color-blind, the probability that the person is a male is 86.41%.

Step by step solution

01

Calculation of Color-Blindness Probability

Calculate the total percent of people who are colorblind. That's the sum of the percent of men who are colorblind and women who are colorblind. So, \(48\% * 56\% + 52\% * 8\% = 26.88\% + 4.16\% = 31.04\%\).
02

Apply Bayes' Formula

Now use Bayes' formula to calculate the probability that a colorblind person is male. Bayes' formula is:\( P(A|B) = \frac{P(B|A) * P(A)}{P(B)} \)where: - \(P(A|B)\) is the probability of event A occurring, given that B has occurred (this is the probability we want to find), - \(P(B|A)\) is the probability of event B occurring, given that A has occurred,- \(P(A)\) and \(P(B)\) are the probabilities of events A and B occurring independently. In this context, A is being male and B is being colorblind. So, we calculate as follows:\(P(Male|Colorblind) = \frac{P(Colorblind|Male) * P(Male)}{P(Colorblind)} = \frac{56\% * 48\%}{31.04\%} = 86.41\%.\)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood of events occurring. This theory is used to predict outcomes and make informed decisions based on the likelihood of certain events. In our exercise, probability theory helps us determine the likelihood of someone being color-blind within a specified population. To calculate probability, we often use fractions, percentages, or decimals to indicate how likely an event is to occur.
For example, we calculated the overall probability that a random person is color-blind. By considering both men and women in the population, we calculated the combined probability that anyone within the group suffers from color blindness. This overall probability is achieved by considering the individual probabilities from each subgroup (men and women).
  • For men: 56% are color-blind, among their 48% fraction of the population.
  • For women: 8% are color-blind, among their 52% fraction of the population.
This detailed breakdown of individual event probabilities leads us to the overall probability of any random person being color-blind in that population.
Tree Diagrams
Tree diagrams are helpful visual tools in probability theory that can be used to model all possible outcomes of a sequence of related events. They consist of branches that represent possible outcomes, making them a great way to organize information and see relationships between events.
In our case, tree diagrams can help us systematically calculate the probability distribution of color blindness based on gender. Imagine a tree where the trunk splits into two main branches: one representing men and the other women. From each of these branches, further branches split off representing those who are color-blind and those who are not.
  • For the male branch: 56% are further split into the color-blind category.
  • For the female branch: 8% are color-blind.
By using these branches, tree diagrams simplify and visually express how these probabilities are connected and allow us to view the complete picture of these percentage breakdowns. This makes it easier to calculate the probability of complex events, such as the down-the-line probability of a subject being a color-blind male.
Gender Statistics
Gender statistics refer to the breakdown of a particular population into segments based on gender, which provides insight into how different genders experience or are affected by various conditions or events. In our problem, statistics show that within a population of 48% men and 52% women, gender plays a role in determining the likelihood of color blindness.
  • 56% of men were analyzed to be color-blind.
  • Conversely, only 8% of women were found to be color-blind.
These significant differences in percentage show an interesting variation between genders concerning color blindness. This variation is essential when analyzing statistical results, as it helps pinpoint which gender might need more consideration or resources devoted to addressing a specific issue, such as color blindness in this case.
Color Blindness Analysis
Color blindness analysis studies the prevalence of color vision deficiency within different demographic groups. By analyzing color blindness in our provided dataset, it becomes apparent that gender heavily influences who might be color-blind.
In this specific scenario, Bayes' theorem helps us quantify further and understand the intersection between gender and color blindness. Given the higher prevalence rate of color blindness in men as compared to women (56% vs 8%), it determines the probability of a person being male if they are known to be color-blind. As seen in our exercise, this led to an 86.41% probability of a person being male, provided they are color-blind.
Breaking it down with statistical tools like Bayes' theorem allows us to draw meaningful conclusions from raw data, enhancing our capability to tackle or mitigate issues faced by certain demographic groups. This analysis is crucial, especially when tailoring public health initiatives or awareness campaigns for color blindness.

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