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A fair coin is tossed three times. What is the probability that at least two heads will occur given that at most two heads have occurred?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that at least two heads will occur given that at most two heads have occurred is \(\frac{1}{2}\).

Step by step solution

01

Identifying Possible Outcomes

First, list all the possible outcomes when a fair coin is tossed three times. The outcomes include HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT.
02

Grouping Outcomes

Group the outcomes into three categories: 'One Head', 'Two Heads', 'Three Heads'. In 'One Head', we have {HTT, THT, TTH}. In 'Two Heads', we have {HHT, HTH, THH}. In 'Three Heads', we have {HHH}. 'No Head' case is ignored as it does not affect our calculation here.
03

Determine Probabilities

Determine the probabilities of the grouped categories. Probability (One Head) = \(\frac{3}{8}\), Probability (Two Heads) = \(\frac{3}{8}\), Probability (Three Heads) = \(\frac{1}{8}\). Note that these probabilities add up to 1.
04

Calculating Conditional Probability

According to the statement 'at least two heads will occur given that at most two heads have occurred', it means we are interested in the event 'Two Heads'. In the scope of 'at most two heads', 'Three Heads' possibility can be ignored. So, the total probability in consideration is Probability (One Head) + Probability (Two Heads) = \(\frac{3}{8} + \(\frac{3}{8} = \(\frac{6}{8}\). Therefore, the conditional probability is \(\frac{Probability('Two Heads')}{total probability} = \(\frac{\frac{3}{8}}{\frac{6}{8}} = \frac{1}{2}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability theory is a branch of mathematics concerned with analyzing random phenomena. It provides a quantifiable measure of the likelihood of various outcomes. We often encounter this concept in tasks such as predicting weather patterns, assessing risk in the financial markets, or as in our exercise, determining the odds of certain rolls or coin flips. In its essence, probability can be defined as a ratio of the number of favorable outcomes over the total number of possible outcomes, usually expressed as a fraction, a decimal, or a percentage.

When considering our exercise, we are looking at a conditional probability scenario - a probability of an event, given that another event has already occurred. Calculating this involves two steps: determining the probability of the intersection of the two events, and then dividing by the probability of the given event. This gives us a new perspective of likelihood and adjusts our expectations based on new information. This is a foundational concept in probability theory, which is applied in various fields such as statistics, science, and engineering.
Combinatorics
Combinatorics is the study of counting, arranging, and finding patterns within discrete structures. It is the backbone of probability theory when we deal with scenarios that involve numerous combinations and outcomes, like the arrangement of numbers, objects, or even the permutations of letters in a word. In probabilistic terms, combinatorics helps in enumerating the possible outcomes that we might need to consider for calculating probabilities.

In the context of our exercise, we used combinatorics to list the different possible outcomes when a coin is flipped three times. When we talk about fair coins and dice, every outcome is equally likely, making our calculations straightforward. We identified eight different outcomes denoted by 'H' for heads and 'T' for tails. Understanding how these outcomes are generated and grouped (like in Step 2 of the solution) is crucial for solving probability problems, as it makes the foundation upon which probability values are based.
Bernoulli Trials
Bernoulli trials are fundamental to understanding a vast range of probability problems, particularly those involving sequences of independent experiments with only two possible outcomes, often called 'success' and 'failure'. A coin toss, like in our exercise, is one of the simplest forms of a Bernoulli trial, where flipping heads may be defined as 'success', and tails as 'failure', or vice versa. Each flip of the coin is independent, meaning the outcome of one does not affect the others, and the probability of success remains constant throughout the trials.

The importance of Bernoulli trials lies in their simplicity and the powerful probabilistic models we can build upon them, such as the binomial distribution. In our exercise, with 'success' being defined as flipping a head, we can calculate the probability of achieving a certain number of successes across the three flips. This sheds light on a pivotal aspect of probability theory for discrete random variables and introduces students to concepts that have wide applications across other more sophisticated stochastic processes.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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