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Suppose that three fair dice are tossed. Let \(A_{i}\) be the event that a 6 shows on the \(i\) th die, \(i=1,2,3\). Does \(P\left(A_{1} \cup A_{2} \cup A_{3}\right)=\frac{1}{2}\) ? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, the probability \(P(A_{1} \cup A_{2} \cup A_{3})\) is not equal to 1/2. The correct probability is approximately 0.4213.

Step by step solution

01

Identify and calculate individual probabilities

Start by determining the probability that a 6 appears on a single die. Recall that a fair die has 6 faces, so the chance of getting a 6 (or any other specific number) is one out of six, namely \(P(A_{i}) = 1/6\) for \(i=1,2,3\).
02

Calculate the probability of intersection of two events

Next, calculate the probabilities of two dice both showing a 6. While two dice are rolled simultaneously, this scenario considers independent events, as the outcome on one die does not affect the outcome on the other. Thus, \(P(A_{i} 鈭 A_{j}) = P(A_{i}) * P(A_{j}) = (1/6)^2 = 1/36\) for \(i鈮爅, i,j=1,2,3\). Since there are three different combinations for two distinct dice, the sum of these probabilities is \(3 * 1/36 = 1/12\).
03

Calculate the probability of intersection of three events

Proceed to calculate the probability that each of the three dice shows a 6. This can be computed in the same way as before, the product of the individual probabilities for each die. This gives \(P(A_{1} 鈭 A_{2} 鈭 A_{3}) = P(A_{1}) * P(A_{2}) * P(A_{3}) = (1/6)^3 = 1/216\).
04

Apply the formula of the union of three events

Now apply the formula for the union of three events. The formula is \(P(A U B U C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A 鈭 B) - P(A 鈭 C) - P(B 鈭 C) + P(A 鈭 B 鈭 C)\). So, calculate \(P(A_{1} 鈭 A_{2} 鈭 A_{3}) = 3*(1/6) - 3*(1/36) + 1/216 = 1/2 - 1/12 + 1/216 = 0.4213\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Union of Events
In probability theory, the union of events refers to the probability of any of several events happening at least once. Imagine it as the logical 鈥渙r鈥 in probability.
For example, when you roll three dice, each die has its own event, labeled here as \(A_1, A_2, \text{and } A_3\). Calculating the union \(A_1 \cup A_2 \cup A_3\) means finding out the likelihood that at least one die shows a 6.
The formula for the union of events is more complex because we must avoid counting overlapping probabilities multiple times. We often use:
  • \(P(A \cup B \cup C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A \cap B) - P(A \cap C) - P(B \cap C) + P(A \cap B \cap C)\)
This formula deduplicates overlapping probabilities to ensure accurate results, avoiding overcounting scenarios where multiple 6s appear.
Intersection of Events
The concept of intersection in probability is akin to the logical "and," signifying the scenario where multiple events occur simultaneously. When examining two dice, the intersection \(A_i \cap A_j\) means both dice show a 6.
Such calculations are critical to avoid overestimating when applying the formula for the union of events. For independent events, the probability of an intersection simplifies to the product of their individual probabilities.
In your exercise, when considering all dice, you found:
  • Two dice: \(P(A_i \cap A_j) = (1/6)^2 = 1/36\)
  • Three dice: \(P(A_1 \cap A_2 \cap A_3) = (1/6)^3 = 1/216\)
Understanding intersections helps in grasping dependencies within combined events and ensures precision when calculating multiple overlapping occurrences.
Independent Events
Events are independent if the occurrence of one does not influence the other. For rolling dice, this is particularly easy to comprehend since each die is separate.
Independence simplifies calculations, as each event's probability remains constant despite other outcomes happening. The formula for independent events is straightforward:
  • \(P(A \cap B) = P(A) \times P(B)\)
For three independent dice, the likelihood of getting three 6s simultaneously is a product of individual probabilities:
  • \(P(A_1 \cap A_2 \cap A_3) = (1/6)^3\)
Thus, treating occurrences as independent makes complex probability problems more manageable and provides clarity when solving such exercises.
Combinatorial Probability
Combinatorial probability involves calculating the likelihood of a specific scenario using various combination-based methods. While the current exercise doesn鈥檛 delve deeply into it, understanding combinations is helpful.
When you roll dice, each combination of outcomes follows principles of combinatorics. For example, calculating combinations of events without reliance on factorial formulas, you can utilize probability rules to find the probability of seeing at least one 6 among your dice.
Often, in complex problems, combinatorial strategies provide elegant solutions without manually considering all possible outcomes. Mastery of these principles can simplify solving problems where direct enumeration is inefficient.

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