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An apartment building has eight floors. If seven people get on the elevator on the first floor, what is the probability they all want to get off on different floors? On the same floor? What assumption are you making? Does it seem reasonable? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of seven individuals each getting off at different floors is 1.92%. For all seven to get off at the same floor, it is 0.000381%.

Step by step solution

01

Different Floors

Calculate the probability of 7 individuals each getting off at a different floor. This means selecting 7 distinct floors out of 8. The first person has 8 choices, the second has 7, and so on, till the seventh person has 2 choices. So the total number of ways these selections can be done uniquely is: 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2, which equals 40,320. The total number of all possible outcomes when at least one person gets off at each floor is \(8^7\), which is 2,097,152. The probability is the ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes. So, Probability = 40,320 / 2,097,152 = 0.0192 or 1.92%.
02

Same Floor

Calculate the probability of 7 individuals all getting off at the same floor. This means all 7 people selecting the same floor out of 8 floors. The number of favorable outcomes here is 8 (one for each floor). The total number of outcomes is still given by \(8^7\). So the required probability is 8 / 2,097,152 = 0.00000381 or 0.000381%.
03

Assumption and Reasonability

The fundamental assumption made here is that each individual picks a floor independently and at random from all 8 floors. This assumption might not necessarily be a reasonable one, as people tend to stay on specific floors based on their residential or commercial preferences. Such factors may skew the probability from each floor being equally likely.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Variables
In probability theory, a random variable is a concept used to assign numerical values to the outcomes of a random event. Consider the situation with the apartment building elevator: each person's choice of floor can be seen as a random variable. This choice isn’t predetermined, allowing for various possible outcomes. Random variables can describe:
  • Discrete outcomes, with specific and separate values, such as different floors chosen by passengers.
  • Continuous outcomes, with any value within a range, which isn't applicable in this discrete elevator scenario.
In our exercise, each person picking a floor acts as a discrete random variable. The elevator riders can independently choose from the eight available floors. In the context of this problem, we assume the independence of each choice, meaning one person's choice doesn't affect another's. This independence is crucial for calculating probabilities in such scenarios, especially when determining the likelihood of everyone choosing distinct or identical floors.
Combinatorics
Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics that explores how objects can be counted, arranged, or combined. In the elevator problem, we use combinatorics to figure out possible floor-selections for passengers. A key part of this includes the idea of permutations, where we consider arrangements where order is important. When calculating probabilities of seven individuals choosing different floors, we use permutations to find all possible unique assignments:
  • The first person has 8 floor options.
  • The second person has 7 remaining options, and so on.
  • This process continues until choices are made for all riders, resulting in permutations.
This leads to the formula: 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2, totaling 40,320 distinct scenarios. Combinatorics helps to understand such problems with arrangements and emphasizes why order of selection impacts probabilities in different scenarios. Using these combinative strategies is essential to solve complex probability questions like the one given with our elevator passengers.
Probability Distribution
Probability distribution describes how probabilities are spread across outcomes in a sample space. In simpler terms, it gives us a picture of how likely certain outcomes are when an experiment or event occurs.For the elevator scenario, we analyze two distributions:
  • One where passengers get off at different floors, spreading probability over a wider range.
  • Another where chances cluster around picking the same floor, showcasing much lower likelihood.
Calculating these probabilities involves determining expected outcomes (i.e., distinct floors vs. one shared floor) and dividing by the total possible outcomes, which in this case is all the ways to assign passengers to floors (\(8^7\) = 2,097,152). In instances where multiple events are equally probable, as assumed in our task, understanding probability distribution helps make informed predictions about expected results and comparisons between possible different scenarios. Ultimately, the concept helps break down the likelihood of events considering their entire context, rather than isolated possibilities.

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