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An army enlistment officer categorizes potential recruits by IQ into three groups - class I: \(<90\), class II: \(90-110\), and class III: \(>110\). Given that the IQs in the population from which the recruits are drawn are normally distributed with \(\mu=100\) and \(\sigma=16\), calculate the probability that of seven enlistees, two will belong to class I, four to class II, and one to class III.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The calculated probability will be the answer given by the formula in Step 4.

Step by step solution

01

- Find the Z scores

First, convert the class IQ ranges to Z scores by using the formula: Z = (X - \mu)\/\sigma. For Class I: \(Z_1 = (90-100)\/16 = -0.625\), for Class II: \(Z_2 = (110-100)\/16 = 0.625\). Here, X denotes the IQ score, \mu represents the mean IQ (\mu = 100) and \sigma is the standard deviation (\sigma = 16).
02

- Find the Probability for Each Class

The Z score gives the number of standard deviations a given value is from the mean. We use the standard normal distribution table (Z table) to find the probabilities corresponding to the Z scores. For Class I: \(P(I) = P(Z < -0.625)\), for Class II: \(P(II) = P(-0.625 < Z < 0.625)\), and for Class III: \(P(III) = P(Z > 0.625)\). We will sum up to 1. Let's denote these as \(P_1, P_2,\) and \(P_3\) respectively. Remember, \(P_1 + P_2 + P_3 = 1\).
03

- Calculate the Combination of Recruits

We know that of seven enlistees, two will belong to class I, four to class II, and one to class III. To find the combination, we use the combination formula, \(_nC_r = n! / (r!(n-r)!)\). So the combinations would be: \(_7C_2\) for class I, \(_7C_4\) for class II, and \(_7C_1\) for class III.
04

- Calculate the Total Required Probability

Finally, we calculate the required probability using the formula of binomial distribution as: \(P = \(_7C_2\) * \(P_1^2\) * \((1-P_1)^5\) + \(_7C_4\) * \(P_2^4\) * \((1-P_2)^3\) + \(_7C_1\) * \(P_3\) * \((1-P_3)^6\)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
In probability theory, the normal distribution, which is also referred to as Gaussian distribution, is a very common continuous probability distribution. Normal distributions are symmetrical with a single peak, and they describe how the values of a variable cluster around a mean. The mean, denoted by \(\mu\), is the central peak of the distribution, and the probability of observing any specific value decreases as we move away from the mean.

The usefulness of the normal distribution stems from the Central Limit Theorem, which states that the sums of independent random variables converge to a normal distribution, irrespective of the original distribution of the variables. This is why the normal distribution is widely applicable in statistical analysis and is used to model everything from IQ scores, as in the textbook exercise, to measurement errors and heights of people.
Z scores
A Z score, also known as a standard score, quantifies the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean. The Z score formula is \(Z = (X - \mu) / \sigma\), where \(X\) is the value in question, \(\mu\) is the mean of the population, and \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation. Z scores are a key part of understanding how data relate to the normal distribution.

They are particularly useful because they allow for comparison between different data sets with different means and standard deviations. In our example, the Z scores are used to categorize IQ scores into different classes and, with the help of Z-tables, convert them into probabilities. This enables us to calculate the likelihood of different outcomes for the number of recruits in each IQ category.
Probability Theory
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena. It provides a formal framework for reasoning about uncertainty and making quantitative predictions about the likelihood of various outcomes. In the context of our problem, probability helps us understand the chance of potential recruits falling within certain IQ classifications.

The theory is underpinned by a set of axioms designed by mathematician Andrey Kolmogorov in the 1930s, which are still in use today. Probability can also be updated with new information using Bayes' theorem, which is not directly used in our exercise but is an essential component of modern statistical analysis.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation (\(\sigma\)) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variance or dispersion of a set of data values. It is the square root of the variance and provides insight into the consistency of the data. A low standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the mean, whereas a high standard deviation indicates that the data points are spread out over a larger range of values.

In our exercise, standard deviation is used to classify IQ scores into classes by determining the distance in terms of standard deviation units from the mean IQ score. It allows us to standardize the differences in IQ scores, making them comparable on a scale normalized by the standard deviation.
Mean
The mean, often referred to as the average, is the central value of a set of numbers. It is calculated by adding up all the numbers and then dividing by the count of numbers. The symbol \(\mu\) usually represents the mean in the context of a normal distribution. In our exercise, the mean is the average IQ score from which we measure the variability of individual scores.

The mean plays a pivotal role in probability distribution as it signifies the expected value. It is the reference point for calculating Z scores, which in turn allows us to use the normal distribution to predict probabilities, making the mean an indispensable component in the entire process of probability analysis.
Combinatorial Mathematics
Combinatorial mathematics, or combinatorics, is a field of mathematics primarily concerned with counting, both as a means and an end in obtaining results, and certain properties of finite structures. It includes the study of combinations, permutations, and other configurations of sets.

In our example, we deal with combinations when we want to know how many ways we can choose two enlistees out of seven for class I, four for class II, and one for class III. The combination formula is \(_nC_r = n! / (r!(n-r)!)\), where \(n\) is the total number of items to choose from, \(r\) is the number of items to choose, and \(n!\) denotes the factorial of \(n\). The factorial function (symbol: \(!\)) multiplies the number by all positive integers below it, e.g., \(5! = 5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1\). Understanding combinatorics is essential for solving problems involving probability distribution, as it provides the groundwork for calculating the likelihood of various combinations of outcomes.

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