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Genders of Children The ratio of male to female births is in fact not exactly one-to-one. The probability that a newborn turns out to be a male is about \(0.52 .\) A family has ten children. (a) What is the probability that all ten children are boys? (b) What is the probability all are girls? (c) What is the probability that five are girls and five are boys?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 0.0017, (b) 0.0003, (c) 0.246

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to calculate the probability of different gender combinations in a family of ten children given that the probability of a newborn being a male is \(0.52\) and a female is \(0.48\). The scenarios include all children being boys, all being girls, and exactly five boys with five girls.
02

Probability of All Children Being Boys

To find the probability that all ten children are boys, we will use the formula for probability of independent events: \[P(\text{all boys}) = (0.52)^{10}\]Calculate it: \[(0.52)^{10} \approx 0.0017\]
03

Probability of All Children Being Girls

To find the probability that all ten children are girls, similarly use:\[P(\text{all girls}) = (0.48)^{10}\]Calculate it:\[(0.48)^{10} \approx 0.0003\]
04

Probability of Five Boys and Five Girls

For five boys and five girls, use the binomial distribution formula:\[P(X = 5) = \binom{10}{5} (0.52)^5 (0.48)^5\]Calculate \(\binom{10}{5}\) (combinatorial number) and the probability:\[\binom{10}{5} = 252\]So the probability is:\[252 \times (0.52)^5 \times (0.48)^5 \approx 0.246\]
05

Compiling the Results

Based on the calculations, we found:(a) Probability that all ten children are boys is approximately \(0.0017\). (b) Probability that all are girls is approximately \(0.0003\).(c) Probability that five are girls and five are boys is approximately \(0.246\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
A binomial distribution is a common probability distribution that describes the likelihood of a given number of "successes" out of a fixed number of independent trials, where each trial has two possible outcomes. In a typical scenario, like flipping a coin or the gender of a newborn, success could mean the outcome we are focusing on. For example, getting a boy when a child is born could be considered a success. The formula for a binomial distribution is:\[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \]where:
  • \(n\) is the total number of trials (in our problem, the number of children, which is 10)
  • \(k\) is the number of successful outcomes (like 5 boys)
  • \(p\) is the probability of success on an individual trial (probability of having a boy, 0.52)
Utilizing the binomial distribution allows us to calculate different probabilities like:
  • The chance of all children being boys
  • The probability of exactly half being boys and half being girls
Understanding binomial distribution helps simplify complex probability calculations in scenarios with fixed numbers of trials, each with two outcomes.
Independent Events
Independent events are key in probability theory. Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other. In our gender problem, whether one child is a boy or a girl does not influence the gender of the other children. Each child's gender is an independent event.A common way to express this mathematically is through probability multiplication. If event A doesn't affect event B, you can find the joint probability by multiplying their individual probabilities:\[ P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \cdot P(B) \]For ten children each having a 0.52 probability of being a boy, the chance of all ten being boys is calculated by raising the probability to the power of 10: \[ P(\text{all boys}) = (0.52)^{10} \]This demonstrates the power of independent events in simplifying probability calculations.
Combinatorial Number
The concept of combinatorial numbers, also known as combinations, is used in probability to determine the number of ways you can choose a subset of items from a larger set. In our problem, we need to find the number of ways to choose 5 boys out of 10 children, since the probability requires this calculation.The formula for combinations is given by:\[ \binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} \]where:
  • \( n \) is the total number of items
  • \( k \) is the number of chosen items
  • \( n! \) ("n factorial") is the product of all positive integers up to \( n \)
For instance, in our problem with 10 children, and choosing 5 boys, it calculates to:\[ \binom{10}{5} = \frac{10!}{5! \cdot 5!} = 252 \]Combinаторial numbers are vital in scenarios where the order does not matter, like selecting which children are boys or girls in a family. Understanding this concept allows calculations like binomial probabilities to be feasible and accurate in real-world situations.

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