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Slot Machine \(A\) slot machine has three wheels, and each wheel has 11 positions - the digits \(0,1,2, \ldots, 9\) and the picture of a watermelon. When a quarter is placed in the machine and the handle is pulled, the three wheels spin independently and come to rest. When three watermelons show, the payout is \(\$ 5 ;\) otherwise, nothing is paid. What is the expected value of this game?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The expected value is approximately 0.0038 dollars per play.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Sample Space

Each wheel has 11 possible positions (0 through 9 and a watermelon), and the wheels spin independently. Thus, the total number of possible outcomes when all three wheels stop is given by multiplying the number of positions on each wheel. Therefore, the sample space, which is the total number of possible outcomes, is:\[ 11 \times 11 \times 11 = 1331 \]
02

Calculate the Probability of Winning

To win, all three wheels must show a watermelon. There is only one 'watermelon' position on each wheel. Thus, the probability of getting a watermelon on each wheel is \(\frac{1}{11}\). The probability of all three showing watermelons concurrently is the product of the individual probabilities:\[ \left(\frac{1}{11}\right)^3 = \frac{1}{1331} \]
03

Determine the Payout and Probability of Not Winning

The payout for three watermelons is \$5, and this happens with a probability of \(\frac{1}{1331}\). The probability of not winning (anything other than three watermelons) is the complement of winning. Therefore, it is:\[ 1 - \frac{1}{1331} = \frac{1330}{1331} \]
04

Calculate the Expected Value

The expected value of a bet is calculated by multiplying the payout of each outcome by its probability, then summing these products. Here, we consider the winning event and the non-winning event.- The expected value related to winning is:\[ 5 \times \frac{1}{1331} = \frac{5}{1331} \]- The expected value related to not winning is:\[ 0 \times \frac{1330}{1331} = 0 \]Thus, the total expected value of this game is:\[ \frac{5}{1331} + 0 = \frac{5}{1331} \]
05

Convert to Monetary Value

Finally, the expected value of this game as a monetary amount. Since the expected value is \(\frac{5}{1331}\) dollars for one play of the game, which requires a quarter to play (0.25 dollars), the expected return (or value) per play in terms of cost is approximately:\[ \frac{5}{1331} \approx 0.0038 \text{ dollars} \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability
Probability is the measure of how likely an event is to occur. In the context of the slot machine game, probability helps us to determine the chances of winning the game by landing on three watermelons. When dealing with slot machines, each wheel has the same number of positions, meaning that each possible outcome has an equal chance of occurring. For our slot machine, each wheel has 11 distinct positions. One of these positions shows a watermelon. Thus, the probability of one wheel landing on the watermelon is \[ \frac{1}{11} \]To find the overall probability of hitting three watermelons (one per wheel), we multiply the probabilities for the individual wheels:\[\left( \frac{1}{11} \right) \times \left( \frac{1}{11} \right) \times \left( \frac{1}{11} \right) = \frac{1}{1331}\]This tells us that the probability of winning the jackpot on this slot machine is very low, which reflects the nature of games of chance.Remember, when calculating the probability of multiple independent events all occurring, you multiply the probability of each event.
Sample Space
Sample space refers to all possible outcomes in a scenario. In our slot machine game, the sample space is all the distinct outcomes for which the wheels could stop. It's important to fully enumerate these possibilities to understand the chances of winning.Each wheel has 11 positions, so a single wheel stopping at any position is one possible outcome. Because the three wheels act independently of each other, you multiply the number of positions on each wheel to find the total sample space:\[11 \times 11 \times 11 = 1331\]The number 1331 represents all the different ways the slot machine wheels can stop. Of those possibilities, only one results in hitting three watermelons simultaneously. This connects directly with the probability of winning, as it gives a foundation for understanding that the event 'three watermelons' is quite rare. Understanding the sample space forms the basis for probability calculations, offering a comprehensive look at the landscape of all possible results.
Payout
The payout is the reward you receive if you win the game. For this specific slot machine game, the payout for landing three watermelons is \\(5. This is the enticing element that encourages players to try their luck. However, one must consider both the rarity of winning and the amount spent to play.Let's break the concept into two aspects:
  • Winning Payout: In this game, the payout reward is tangible, since you're awarded \\)5 if you succeed in getting three watermelons on a single play.
  • Odds against Winning: Given the probability calculated as \(\frac{1}{1331}\), you can imagine that winning isn’t something that happens often. Understanding this rarity affects how often one might expect to receive the payout.
In gambling tools like slot machines, calculating the expected value lets us understand how economically favorable playing the game really is. In this case, the expected value per play is only approximately 0.0038 dollars, which is much less than the cost to play (0.25 dollars per spin). This means you're quite likely to lose more than you gain, typical of such games where the odds favor the house.

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