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Suppose that n points are independently chosen at random on the circumference of a circle, and we want the probability that they all lie in some semicircle. That is, we want the probability that there is a line passing through the center of the circle such that all the points are on one side of that line, as shown in the following diagram:

Let P1, ... ,Pn denote the n points. Let A denote the event that all the points are contained in some semicircle, and let Ai be the event that all the points lie in the semicircle beginning at the point Pi and going clockwise for 180â—¦, i = 1, ... , n.

(a) Express A in terms of the Ai.

(b) Are the Ai mutually exclusive?

(c) Find P(A).

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) A=∪i=1nAi

(b) Aiare almost mutually exclusive, but not quite.

(c) Probability : P(A)=n(1/2)n-1

Step by step solution

01

Introduction

The circumference of a circle or ellipse is its perimeter. That is, if the circle were expanded out and straightened out to a line segment, the circumference would be the arc length of the circle. The perimeter, in general, is the length of any closed figure's curve.

02

Given

Shown that line passing through the center of the circle such that all the points are on one side of that line.

03

Explanation (a)

Let

P1,…,Pndenote the n points.

A: event contains all the points in some semicircle.

Ai: event for all the points lie in the semicircle beginning at the point Pi

For each i,

Ai⊂A

Thus,

∪i=1nAi⊆A

Now,

For reverse inclusion:

If A occurs,

Then

The semicircle can be rotated clockwise until it begins at Pi.

That shows

Aiand ∪i=1nAi occurs.

Such that

A⊆∪i=1nAi

Therefore,

A=∪i=1nAi
04

Explanation (b)

Let

P1,…,Pndenote the n points.

A : event contains all the points in some semicircle.

Ai: event for all the points lie in the semicircle beginning at the point PiIf Pi=Pj,

Then

Aiand Ajcannot be mutually exclusive.

And

Pklies in the semicircle going clockwise for 180°and starts at Pi=Pj.

In such case,

Both Aiand Ajoccur.

On the other hand,

If Pi≠Pj,

Then

Both Aiand Ajcannot occur.

Also,

If Pjis in the semicircle going clockwise for 180°and starts atPi.

Then

Piis in the semicircle going clockwise for 180°and starts at Pj.

Thus,

AiAj⊆Pi=Pj

Furthermore,

PPi=Pj=0

Such that

PAiAj=0

Thus,

We can say that

Ai are almost mutually exclusive, but not quite.

05

Explanation (c)

Let

P1,…,Pndenote the n points.

A : event contains all the points in some semicircle.

Ai: event for all the points lie in the semicircle beginning at the point Pi

From Part (b),

We have

PAiAj=0

That follows

PAiAjAk=0

And

It is also true for all higher order intersections.

Then

We have

P(A)⊆P∪i=1nAi

By the identity of inclusion-exclusion:

P(A)=∑i=1nPAi-∑i<jPAiAj+∑ixj<kPAiAjAk-…

Since all other terms are zero,

P(A)=∑i=1nPAi

Now,

Fix

i∈{1,…,n}

And

A randomly chosenPi.

For j≠i,

The probability that the randomly chosen point Pjis in the semicircle going clockwise for 180°and starts at

Piis 1/2.

i∈{1,…,n}

And

A randomly chosen Pi.

For j≠i,

The probability that the randomly chosen point Pjis in the semicircle going clockwise for 180°and starts at

Piis1/2.

Thus,

P(A)=∑i=1nPAi=n(1/2)n-1

Thus,

P(A)=∑i=1nPAi=n(1/2)n-1

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