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The life of a certain type of automobile tire is normally distributed with mean 34,000miles and standard deviation 4,000miles.

(a) What is the probability that such a tire lasts more than 40,000miles?

(b) What is the probability that it lasts between 30,000and35,000miles?

(c) Given that it has survived 30,000miles, what is the conditional probability that the tire survives another 10,000miles?

Short Answer

Expert verified

a) 0.06681is the probability last more than 40,000miles

b) 0.44is the probability between 30,000and 35,000miles

c)0.0794is the conditional probability of another10,000miles

Step by step solution

01

Step:1 Find the probability of last more than 40,000miles.(Part a)

a) Create a random value of X.

Representing the lifespan of a chosen randomly automotive tire.

That is given to us X~N34000,40002

P(X>40000)=1−P(X≤40000)

=1−PX−340004000≤40000−340004000

=1−Φ(1.5)

=1-0.93319

=0.06681

02

Step:2 Find the probability between 30,000and 35,000. (Part b)

b) The given information is X~N34000,40002

P(30000≤X≤35000)=P30000−340004000≤X−340004000≤35000−340004000

localid="1649488038646" role="math" =P−1≤X−340004000≤0.25

=Φ(0.25)−Φ(−1)

role="math" localid="1649488073471" =0.59871−0.15866

=0.44

03

Step:3  Find the conditional probability. (Part c)

c). Given X~N34000,40002

P(X≥40000∣X≥30000)=P(X≥40000,X≥30000)P(X≥30000)

=P(X≥40000)P(X≥30000)

The preceding expression is equivalent to

P(X≥40000)P(X≥30000)=1−PX−340004000≤400003400040001−PX340004000≤30000−340004000

=1−Φ(1.5)1−Φ(−1)

=1−0.933191−0.15866

=0.0794

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