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For the k-out-of-n system described in Problem 3.67, assume that each component independently works with probability 12 . Find the conditional probability that component 1 is working, given that the system works, when

(a) k=1,n=2;

(b)k=2,n=3.

Short Answer

Expert verified

a). The probabilities PW11-out-of-2=23.

b). The probabilitiesPW12-out-of-3=34.

Step by step solution

01

Given Information (Part a)

Wi- event that the i-th component works, i{1,2,n}.

PWi=Pi,i{1,2,n}.

02

Explanation (Part a)

PW11-out-of-2=P1-out-of-2W1PW1P(1-out-of-2)

Because of what1-out -of -2means P1-out -of -2W1=1, and PW1=P=12, and boxed formula in box 1yields:

P(1-out-of-2)=1l22l12l1-122-l=21122+22122=34

Now these probabilities can be substituted into formula above:

PW11-out-of-2=11234=23.

03

Final Answer (Part a)

The probabilitiesPW11-out-of-2=23.

04

Given Information (Part b)

Wi- event that the i-th component works, i{1,2,n}.

PWi=Pi,i{1,2,n}.

05

Explanation (Part b)

PW12-out-of-3=P2-out-of-3W1PW1P(2-out-of-3)

If W1occurred, 2- out -of -3means that in W2,W3-2components, 1 more has to be working, and since these are independent, identically distributed:

P2-out-of-3W1=P(1-out-of-2)=a)34

And for the denominator use boxed formula in box 1:

P(2-out-of-3)=2l33l12l1-123-l=32123+33123=48=12

This is all that is needed to calculate the probability by the stated formula:

PW12-out-of-3=341212=34

06

Final Answer (Part b)

The probabilitiesPW12-out-of-3=34.

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