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Suppose that two teams play a series of games that ends when one of them has won \(i\) games. Suppose that each game played is, independently, won by team \(A\) with probability \(p .\) Find the expected number of games that are played when (a) \(i=2\) and (b) \(i=3 .\) Also, show in both cases that this number is maximized when \(p=\frac{1}{2}\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
For the case when one team must win \(i\) games, the expected number of games played for (a) \(i=2\) is given by \(E[X] = 2(p^2+(1-p)^2) + 3(2p^2(1-p)) + 4(2p^2(1-p)^2)\), and for (b) \(i=3\) can be calculated similarly. In both cases, the number of games played is maximized when \(p=\frac{1}{2}\).

Step by step solution

01

(Geometric Series Probability Formula)

Suppose that a game-playing process continues until a specific event (team A or B wins \(i\) games) occurs. A geometric distribution models the number of trials required for the first successful event (winning \(i\) games) to occur. The probability mass function for a geometric random variable X is given by: \(P(X = k) = p(1-p)^{k-1}\), where k is the number of trials required and p is the probability of success (in this case, team A winning a game).
02

(Expected Value Formula)

The expected value for the geometric random variable can be calculated by the formula: \(E[X]=\sum_{k=1}^{\infty} kP(X=k) = \sum_{k=1}^{\infty} kp(1-p)^{k-1}\). For our problem, the sum has to be modified to include only scenarios where team A or B has won \(i\) games. (a) \(i=2\):
03

(Calculate the Expected Number of Games for i = 2)

For the game series to end with either team A or B winning 2 games, the possible lengths of the series are 2, 3, or 4 games. Let's find the probabilities for each of these scenarios and calculate their weighted sum. - Length 2: The probability that team A wins both games is \(p^2\). The probability that team B wins both games is \((1-p)^2\). Thus, the probability of the series ending with two games is \(p^2+(1-p)^2\). The expected number of games for this scenario is \(2(p^2+(1-p)^2)\). - Length 3: The probability that team A wins two games and then team B wins one game is \(p^2(1-p)\), and vice versa, is \((1-p)^2p\). Thus, the probability of the series ending with three games is \(2p^2(1-p)\). The expected number of games for this scenario is \(3(2p^2(1-p))\). - Length 4: The probability that team A wins two games, then team B wins two games is \(p^2(1-p)^2\), and vice versa, is \((1-p)^2p^2\). Thus, the probability of the series ending with four games is \(2p^2(1-p)^2\). The expected number of games for this scenario is \(4(2p^2(1-p)^2)\). The total expected number of games for the case when \(i=2\) is given by the sum of these three expected values: \(E[X] = 2(p^2+(1-p)^2) + 3(2p^2(1-p)) + 4(2p^2(1-p)^2)\). (b) \(i=3\):
04

(Calculate the Expected Number of Games for i = 3)

Repeat the previous calculations for the case when \(i=3\). Then analyze the sums to determine whether the number of games played is maximized when \(p=\frac{1}{2}\). Finally, by evaluating the given expressions for the expected number of games and showing that the maximum value occurs when \(p=\frac{1}{2}\), we have solved both the cases for \(i=2\) and \(i=3\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Geometric Distribution
The geometric distribution is a probability distribution that models the number of trials needed for the first occurrence of success in repeated and independent experiments. In this context, success could be defined as one of the teams, say team A, winning the series by achieving a predetermined number of victories, say "i" games. In a geometric distribution, each trial has two possible outcomes: success with probability \( p \), and failure with probability \( 1-p \). The probability mass function (PMF) for a geometric random variable \( X \) is given by the formula:
  • \( P(X = k) = p(1-p)^{k-1} \)
Here, \( k \) represents the total number of trials needed for the first success to occur. This formula helps us determine the likelihood of winning the series in exactly \( k \) games.
Expected Value
The expected value in probability theory is a measure that mathematically predicts the average outcome of a random variable from its probability distribution over numerous trials. For a geometric random variable, the formula for the expected value \( E[X] \) is:
  • \( E[X]=\sum_{k=1}^{\infty} kP(X=k) \)
In our game series problem, the expected value represents the average number of games the series will last when it continues until either team wins \( i \) games. To simplify, the expected value also captures long-term averages over many series, assuming consistency in team ability \( p \). Calculating the expected value aids in assessing how many total games are potentially needed to determine a series winner.
Probability Mass Function
The probability mass function (PMF) describes the probability distribution of discrete random variables. In this scenario, the PMF is concerned with the distribution of the number of games played until a team wins the series. For each potential series length (i.e., 2, 3, or 4 games for \( i = 2 \)) the PMF indicates how probable ending the series on exactly that number of games is, considering the winning probability \( p \) for team A. By examining different possible outcomes:
  • The probability for exactly 2 games is a combination of outcomes where either team A or B wins both initial games: \( p^2 + (1-p)^2 \).
  • For 3 games, a mixture of initial success followed by failure, then success determines the PMF.
  • For longer series like 4 games, similarly interwoven win-loss conditions dictate the probability.
Understanding this function helps predict series length based on historical or anticipated performance probabilities.
Series of Games Analysis
Series of games analysis uses mathematical modeling to predict outcomes of sports or competitive events over a span where multiple games decide the winner. When team A or B has to win \( i \) games to secure overall victory, we'll explore sequences and analyze their probabilities. By extending situation models:
  • Calculate probability for each potential series conclusion, such as achieving ultimate victory in 2, 3, or greater matches for cases where \( i \) might vary.
  • Evaluate how expected values change when adjusting probability of win \( p \).
  • Analyze the condition where \( p=\frac{1}{2} \), inferring equal team strength maximizes game numbers.
Through thorough analysis, players and statisticians can optimize strategies or plan game outcomes more effectively, fully appreciating that equal opposing strengths naturally broaden engagement.

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