Chapter 5: Problem 19
Let \(X\) be a normal random variable with mean 12 and variance \(4 .\) Find the value of \(c\) such that \(P[X>c\\}=.10\).
Short Answer
Expert verified
The value of \(c\) such that \(P[X>c] = 0.10\) is approximately \(14.56\).
Step by step solution
01
Standard Normal Distribution and Z-score
First we need to find the standard normal random variable (Z-score) with the given probability. The Z-score is defined as:
\(Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\)
Where \(\mu\) is the mean of the distribution, and \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation (square root of the variance). We have \(\mu = 12\) and \(\sigma^2 = 4\), thus \(\sigma = 2\).
Let's denote the Z-score as \(Z_c\), which corresponds to the \(c\) value we are trying to determine. We can write the probability mentioned in the exercise as:
\(P[X>c] = 0.10\)
Then, using the Z-score, we can re-write this probability as:
\(P[Z > Z_c] = 0.10\)
Now we need to find the value of \(Z_c\).
02
Finding the Z-score using the Standard Normal Distribution Table
To find \(Z_c\), we need to refer to a standard normal distribution table. Recall that in a standard normal distribution table, probabilities are provided considering the area under the curve to the LEFT side of the Z-score.
What we have here, however, is the probability to the RIGHT side of \(Z_c\). Therefore, we need to first convert this to its equivalent "left-tail" probability, by subtracting the right-tail probability from 1:
\(P[Z < Z_c] = 1 - P[Z > Z_c] = 1 - 0.10 = 0.90\)
Now, we can look up 0.90 in a standard normal distribution table (online or a printed one). We find that the corresponding Z-score is approximately:
\(Z_c \approx 1.28\)
03
Finding the value of c
Now that we know the Z-score \(Z_c \approx 1.28\), we can use the Z-score formula mentioned in step 1 to find the value of \(c\):
Recall that, \(Z_c = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\)
Now, plug in the Z-score and the given values of \(\mu\) and \(\sigma\) to solve for \(c\):
\(1.28 = \frac{c - 12}{2}\)
Now, solve for \(c\):
\(c = 1.28 \times 2 + 12\)
\(c \approx 14.56\)
So, the value of \(c\) such that \(P[X>c] = 0.10\) is approximately \(14.56\).
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Z-score Calculation
The Z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. It is measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. If you have a normal random variable like \( X \), with a mean (\( \mu \)) and standard deviation (\( \sigma \)), you calculate the Z-score for a specific value using the formula:\
\
\[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]\
\
\In practical terms, the Z-score lets you translate any normal random variable to the standard normal distribution, which has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. Knowing the Z-score allows you to determine how many standard deviations an element \( X \) is from its mean. This is crucial in finding probabilities for more complex scenarios not directly available in standard tables.
\
\[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]\
\
\In practical terms, the Z-score lets you translate any normal random variable to the standard normal distribution, which has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. Knowing the Z-score allows you to determine how many standard deviations an element \( X \) is from its mean. This is crucial in finding probabilities for more complex scenarios not directly available in standard tables.
Standard Normal Distribution Table
A standard normal distribution table, also known as the Z-table, is a reference for finding probabilities associated with the standard normal distribution. It shows the cumulative probability up to a certain Z-score.
Since the table gives the area to the LEFT under the standard normal curve, if you're looking for a probability to the RIGHT (as is common with finding \( P[X>c] \)), you'll need to subtract the table value from 1. The Z-table is essential for many statistical analyses because it allows us to state the probability of a random variable falling within a certain interval, or more simply, it tells us what percentage of data falls below a certain Z-score.
Since the table gives the area to the LEFT under the standard normal curve, if you're looking for a probability to the RIGHT (as is common with finding \( P[X>c] \)), you'll need to subtract the table value from 1. The Z-table is essential for many statistical analyses because it allows us to state the probability of a random variable falling within a certain interval, or more simply, it tells us what percentage of data falls below a certain Z-score.
Normal Random Variable Properties
Normal random variables have specific properties that define their distribution:
- Their distribution is symmetric around the mean.
- The mean, median, and mode of the distribution are all equal.
- The distribution is determined by two parameters: the mean (\( \mu \)) and variance (\( \sigma^2 \)).
- Approximately 68% of the data falls within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% falls within two standard deviations, and 99.7% falls within three standard deviations (this is known as the empirical rule).
Probability P[X>c]
The probability \( P[X>c] \) represents the likelihood that a normal random variable \( X \) exceeds a certain value \( c \). It is a right-tail probability because it looks at the area under the normal curve to the right of \( c \).
To calculate this, you first find the corresponding Z-score of \( c \) and then use the standard normal distribution table to find the cumulative probability up to that Z-score. Since the table gives you the area to the LEFT, you'll subtract this from 1 to get the probability to the RIGHT. This probability is key in many statistical analyses, such as hypothesis testing and setting confidence intervals.
To calculate this, you first find the corresponding Z-score of \( c \) and then use the standard normal distribution table to find the cumulative probability up to that Z-score. Since the table gives you the area to the LEFT, you'll subtract this from 1 to get the probability to the RIGHT. This probability is key in many statistical analyses, such as hypothesis testing and setting confidence intervals.