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Suppose that the number of events that occur in a specified time is a Poisson random variable with parameter \(\lambda\). If each event is counted with probability \(p\), independently of every other event, show that the number of events that are counted is a Poisson random variable with parameter \(\lambda p\). Also, give an intuitive argument as to why this should be so. As an application of the preceding paragraph, suppose that the number of distinct uranium deposits in a given area is a Poisson random variable with parameter \(\lambda=10\). If, in a fixed period of time, each deposit is discovered independently with probability \(\frac{1}{50}\), find the probability that (a) exactly 1, (b) at least 1 , and (c) at most 1 deposit is discovered during that time.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The number of counted events indeed follows a Poisson distribution with parameter λp. Applying this result to the uranium deposits problem, we find that the probability of discovering exactly 1 deposit is approximately 0.1637, at least 1 deposit is approximately 0.181, and at most 1 deposit is approximately 0.9827.

Step by step solution

01

Define Poisson and new random variables

Let X be the original number of events, which follows a Poisson distribution with parameter λ. Let Y be the random variable representing the number of events counted. Each event is counted with probability p.
02

Prove that Y follows a Poisson distribution with parameter λp

To show that Y follows a Poisson distribution with parameter λp, we need to compute its probability mass function (PMF) and show that it has the same form as that of a Poisson distribution with parameter λp. Compute the PMF: P(Y = y) = \(\sum_{x=y}^{\infty} P(Y=y | X=x) P(X=x)\) = \(\sum_{x=y}^{\infty} {x \choose y} p^y (1-p)^{x-y} \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^x}{x!}\) Now, we factor out terms depending only on y and rearrange the remaining terms: P(Y = y) = \(\frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^y p^y}{y!}\) \(\sum_{x=y}^{\infty} \frac{(1-p)^{x-y} \lambda^{x-y}}{(x-y)!}\) Notice that the term inside the summation resembles the Poisson PMF with parameter λ(1-p). Therefore, the expression inside the summation equals e^(-λ(1-p)). We then have: P(Y = y) = \(\frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^y p^y}{y!}\) e^(-λ(1-p)) = \(\frac{e^{-\lambda p} (\lambda p)^y}{y!}\) This is the PMF of a Poisson distribution with parameter λp.
03

Apply the Poisson distribution with parameter λp to a practical problem

Using the result from Step 2, we know that the number of discovered uranium deposits is a Poisson random variable with parameter λp = 10 * \(\frac{1}{50}\) = \(\frac{1}{5}\). We need to find the probability that: a) Exactly 1 deposit is discovered during that time: P(Y = 1) = \(\frac{e^{-\frac{1}{5}} (\frac{1}{5})^1}{1!}\) ≈ 0.1637 b) At least 1 deposit is discovered during that time: P(Y >= 1) = 1 - P(Y = 0) = 1 - \(\frac{e^{-\frac{1}{5}} (\frac{1}{5})^0}{0!}\) ≈ 1 - 0.819 = 0.181 c) At most 1 deposit is discovered during that time: P(Y <= 1) = P(Y = 0) + P(Y = 1) ≈ 0.819 + 0.1637 = 0.9827

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Mass Function
In probability theory, the Probability Mass Function (PMF) is a fundamental concept when dealing with discrete random variables. It essentially provides the probability that a discrete random variable is exactly equal to some value. For a Poisson random variable with parameter \(\lambda\), the PMF is given by:\[P(X = x) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^{x}}{x!}\]
This formula gives us the probability of observing exactly \(x\) events in a fixed interval of time or space, where \(\lambda\), the average number of events, is the parameter of the distribution.
Understanding the PMF is crucial in identifying how likely certain outcomes are, which can be applied across numerous fields, such as finance, engineering, and natural sciences. For example, in the exercise we are given, discovering uranium deposits can be modeled with a Poisson distribution. By calculating the PMF, we determine the probability of discovering exactly one deposit.
Random Variables
Random variables are the backbone of probability distributions. They are functions that assign a numerical value to each possible outcome of a random experiment. Variable types include discrete and continuous, and the focus here is on discrete random variables like those in a Poisson distribution. When we have a Poisson random variable, it means the events, such as phone calls at a call center occurring over a period, follow this distribution with a parameter \(\lambda\).
In our exercise, the random variable \(X\) represents the original number of events (uranium deposits), and it follows a Poisson distribution. There is another random variable \(Y\), the number of events that are counted, which also follows a Poisson distribution now with parameter \(\lambda p\). This transition occurs as each event is independently counted with probability \(p\). Understanding these variables allows us to predict the likelihood of different outcomes based on given conditions.
Independent Events
The concept of independent events is pivotal in probability as it simplifies complex calculations. Events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the other event occurring. In the context of our exercise, each event (uranium deposit) being counted has no effect on the counting of other events, given they operate independently with probability \(p\).
Because each event has a probability \(p\) of being counted, the resulting count of events \(Y\) is a Poisson random variable with parameter \(\lambda p\). This independence plays a crucial role in transforming the original Poisson distribution to reflect a new scenario where events are counted independently. Thus, learning how to identify and work with independent events is essential for calculating joint probabilities and for simplifying probability models.
Parameter λ
The parameter \(\lambda\) is the cornerstone of any Poisson distribution. It represents the average rate at which events occur in a given interval. For instance, if \(\lambda = 10\), on average, 10 events happen over the specified period or area. This parameter is critical to calculating probabilities using the PMF.
In the exercise, initially, \(\lambda = 10\) for undiscovered uranium deposits. Once the problem is adjusted for the independent counting with probability \(p = \frac{1}{50}\), the new parameter becomes \(\lambda p = \frac{10}{50} = \frac{1}{5}\). This new parameter \(\lambda p\) feeds into our calculations to find probabilities associated with the number of discovered deposits. The parameter \(\lambda\) thus guides the behavior of Poisson-distributed random variables and helps model real-world processes accurately.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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