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91Ó°ÊÓ

In a certain community, 36 percent of the families own a dog, and 22 percent of the families that own a dog also own a cat. In addition, 30 percent of the families own a cat. What is (a) the probability that a randomly selected family owns both a dog and a cat; (b) the conditional probability that a randomly selected family owns a dog given that it owns a cat?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) The probability that a randomly selected family owns both a dog and a cat is 7.92%. (b) The conditional probability that a randomly selected family owns a dog given that it owns a cat is 26.4%.

Step by step solution

01

(a) The probability of owning both a dog and a cat

The probability that a randomly selected family owns both a dog and a cat is 7.92%. #Step 2: Find the conditional probability of owning a dog given the family owns a cat# We want to find P(Dog | Cat). We know that: P(Dog | Cat) = P(Dog ∩ Cat) / P(Cat) Substitute the values we found in step 1 and the given probability for owning a cat: P(Dog | Cat) = 0.0792 / 0.30 Calculate the probability: P(Dog | Cat) = 0.264
02

(b) The conditional probability of owning a dog given the family owns a cat

The conditional probability that a randomly selected family owns a dog given that it owns a cat is 26.4%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
At the core of understanding various outcomes of events is probability theory. This branch of mathematics deals with the quantification of the likelihood that an event will occur. It is fundamental to various fields such as statistics, finance, science, and many forms of decision-making.

When we express probability, it typically ranges between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates an impossible event, and 1 signifies a certain event. In the context of the exercise, for example, the probability of a family owning a pet (whether a dog, a cat, or both) is a value between 0 and 1 based on the percentage of families that own pets within the community.

Understanding how to convert percentages and proportions into probabilities is essential. To transition from a percentage to a standard probability, we divide by 100. For instance, if 36 percent of families own a dog, this is expressed in probability as \(0.36\) or \(\frac{36}{100}\).
Joint Probability
Joint probability is the probability that two events will occur simultaneously. In probability notation, it's denoted by \(P(A \cap B)\), where \(A\) and \(B\) are two events. This probability informs us about the occurrence of event \(A\) and event \(B\) at the same time.

In the given exercise, the joint probability to find is the likelihood that a family owns both a dog and a cat. This is represented as \(P(Dog \cap Cat)\). Mathematically, if we know the individual probabilities of each event and the conditional probability that a family owning a dog also owns a cat, we can determine the joint probability. It's calculated by multiplying the probability of one event by the conditional probability of the other event occurring given that the first event has occurred, formulated as \(P(Dog) \times P(Cat | Dog)\).

This joint probability concept is vital in various real-world applications, such as understanding the likelihood of concurrent weather events or the risk of simultaneous system failures in engineering.
Bayes' Theorem
Bayes' theorem is a powerful result in probability theory that allows us to update our probability estimates based on new information. It is expressed as \(P(A | B) = \frac{P(B | A) \times P(A)}{P(B)}\), where \(P(A | B)\) is the probability of event \(A\) occurring given that event \(B\) has occurred.

In the exercise's context of conditional probability, Bayes' theorem applies to part (b), which queries about the probability of a family owning a dog given that it already owns a cat \(P(Dog | Cat)\). With the established joint probability \(P(Dog \cap Cat)\) and the probability of owning a cat \(P(Cat)\), Bayes’ theorem helps to unravel this conditional probability.

Breaking it down with the numbers from the exercise, we calculate this conditional probability by taking the joint probability that a family owns both pets and dividing it by the probability of owning a cat, resulting in \(P(Dog | Cat) = 0.264\) or 26.4%. Bayes' theorem has a vast array of uses beyond textbook exercises, including the fields of machine learning, diagnostic testing, and decision-making processes.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Two fair dice are rolled. What is the conditional probability that at least one lands on 6 given that the dice land on different numbers?

The following method was proposed to estimate the number of people over the age of 50 that reside in a town of known population 100,000 . "As you walk along the streets, keep a running count of the percentage of people that you encounter who are over \(50 .\) Do this for a few days; then multiply the obtained percentage by 100,000 to obtain the estimate." Comment on this method. HINT: Let \(p\) denote the proportion of people in this town who are over \(50 .\) Furthermore, let \(\alpha_{1}\) denote the proportion of time that a person under the age of 50 spends in the streets, and let \(\alpha_{2}\) be the corresponding value for those over \(50 .\) What quantity does the method suggested estimate? When is it approximately equal to \(p ?\)

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If you had to construct a mathematical model for events \(E\) and \(F\), as described in parts (a) through (e), would you assume that they were independent events? Explain your reasoning. (a) \(E\) is the event that a businesswoman has blue eyes, and \(F\) is the event that her"secretary has blue eyes. (b) \(E\) is the event that a professor owns a car, and \(F\) is the event that he is listed in the telephone book. (c) \(E\) is the event that a man is under 6 feet tall, and \(F\) is the event that he weighs over 200 pounds. (d) \(E\) is the event that a woman lives in the United States, and \(F\) is the event that she lives in the western hemisphere. (e) \(E\) is the event that it will rain tomorrow, and \(F\) is the event that it will rain the day after tomorrow.

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