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Two cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. Let \(\mathrm{X}\) denote the random variable of number of aces obtained in the two drawn cards. Then \(\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{X}=1)+\mathrm{P}(\mathrm{X}=2)\) equals: \([\mathrm{Jan} 09, \mathbf{2 0 1 9}(\mathrm{I})]\) (a) \(49 / 169\) (b) \(52 / 169\) (c) \(24 / 169\) (d) \(25 / 169\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
(d) 25/169

Step by step solution

01

Identify the probability of drawing an Ace

In a deck of 52 cards, there are 4 aces. The probability of drawing an ace on any draw is \( \frac{4}{52} \) or \( \frac{1}{13} \). Since there's replacement, the probability remains the same for each draw.
02

Calculate the probability of drawing one Ace

The probability of getting exactly one ace in two draws includes two scenarios: drawing an ace first and not second, or not first and ace second. This is given by \( P(\text{X = 1}) = \frac{1}{13} \cdot \frac{12}{13} + \frac{12}{13} \cdot \frac{1}{13} = \frac{24}{169} \).
03

Calculate the probability of drawing two Aces

The probability of drawing two aces (an ace in both draws) is \( P(\text{X = 2}) = \frac{1}{13} \cdot \frac{1}{13} = \frac{1}{169} \).
04

Sum the probabilities

Add the probabilities found in steps 2 and 3 to compute \( P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) \). This equals \( \frac{24}{169} + \frac{1}{169} = \frac{25}{169} \).
05

Conclusion

The value of \( P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) \) is \( \frac{25}{169} \), which corresponds to option (d).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Variables
In probability theory, a random variable is a variable whose possible values are numerical outcomes of a random phenomenon. In simpler terms, it's a way to map outcomes to numbers. For the exercise at hand, the random variable \(X\) represents the number of aces drawn from two successive card selections. Here, \(X\) can take values like 0, 1, or 2, depending on the number of aces drawn in these two tries.

Understanding random variables is crucial because they provide a mathematical way to quantify the randomness of an event. By defining \(X\) as the number of aces, we translate the qualitative aspect of 'drawing aces' into quantitative analysis. In our scenario, calculating \(P(X = 1)\) and \(P(X = 2)\) for the number of aces helps us understand the likelihood of these different outcomes.
Combinatorics
Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics dealing with combinations of objects. When drawing cards from a deck, combinatorics helps us calculate probabilities by considering all possible arrangements and combinations.

In the context of our exercise, combinatorics is used to identify possible outcomes of drawing aces and other cards. We analyze all combinations: drawing an ace first then not an ace, not an ace first then an ace, or two aces consecutively. This approach relies on determining how these specific events can occur over possible draws, leading us to calculate probabilities like \(\frac{24}{169}\) for one ace and \(\frac{1}{169}\) for two aces.
  • It's important to note that each draw is independent, as the cards are replaced after each draw, simplifying our probability calculations.
Card Probability
Card probability involves calculating the likelihood of drawing specific cards from a standard deck. Each deck contains 52 cards, including 4 aces, which is fundamental in determining the framework of card probability.

When calculating card probabilities, consider every draw and the total number of cards. In our exercise, we found that the chance of drawing an ace on the first draw is \(\frac{4}{52}\) or \(\frac{1}{13}\). Since we replace the card, the probability remains \(\frac{1}{13}\) for the second draw too.
  • Replacement ensures that probabilities don't change, maintaining a consistent chance for each draw.
When dealing with card-related problems, always breakdown problems step by step, leveraging your understanding of standard deck composition and the rules of drawing.
Replacement Events
Replacement events refer to situations where an item, once drawn, is replaced back, thereby keeping the conditions or probability characteristics the same for every trial. In this exercise, each time a card is drawn, it is replaced before the next draw, which means every card draw is independent.

The probability of drawing an ace stays constant at \(\frac{1}{13}\) throughout both draws. Replacement is significant because it simplifies probability calculations as it avoids altering the sample space— the total number of cards remains 52 throughout the entire process.
  • This concept is crucial when calculating independent probabilities, ensuring consistent logical steps for each event.
  • This prevents cumulative probability changes which could cloud analysis.

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