Chapter 22: Problem 29
On average, a sharpshooter hits the target once every 3 shots. What is the probability that he will hit the target in 4 shots? (A) 1 (B) 1/81 (C) \(1 / 3\) (D) \(65 / 81\) (E) \(71 / 81\)
Short Answer
Expert verified
The probability he will hit the target in 4 shots is \( \frac{65}{81} \).
Step by step solution
01
Define Success and Failure Probabilities
Let's define the probability of success (hitting the target) as \( p = \frac{1}{3} \), because the sharpshooter hits the target once in every 3 shots. Therefore, the probability of failure (missing the target) is \( 1 - p = \frac{2}{3} \).
02
Consider Binomial Scenarios
We want to find the probability of hitting the target at least once in 4 shots. The probability that the sharpshooter misses all 4 shots (failure in all attempts) is \( (\frac{2}{3})^4 \).
03
Calculate Probability of Missing All 4 Shots
Calculate \((\frac{2}{3})^4 = \frac{16}{81}\).
04
Calculate the Probability of Hitting at Least Once
To find the probability of hitting the target at least once in 4 shots, subtract the probability of missing all shots from 1: \(1 - \frac{16}{81} = \frac{65}{81}\).
05
Identify the Correct Answer
The probability that the sharpshooter will hit the target at least once in 4 shots is, therefore, \( \frac{65}{81} \). This corresponds to option (D).
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Binomial Distribution
The Binomial Distribution is a critical concept when analyzing situations where outcomes are repetitive and independent. Here, we delve into scenarios where there are two possible results: success or failure, such as hitting or missing a target. In this problem, each shot at the target is an independent event, which makes this a binomial scenario.
- "Success" is defined as hitting the target, and "failure" is missing it.
- The probability of success in each shot is represented as \( p \), and for failure, it is \( 1 - p \).
Calculating Probabilities
At the heart of probability calculations is the ability to determine the likelihood of different outcomes based on given conditions. Begin by understanding the basic probability definitions:
- Probability of a single success (\( p \)),
- Probability of a single failure (\( 1-p \)).
- Firstly, calculate the probability of the undesired outcome (missing all shots in this case).
- This is done by raising the probability of a single failure to the power of the number of trials: \((\frac{2}{3})^4\).
Mathematical Problem Solving
Mathematical problem solving in probability helps in systematically breaking down a problem into simpler parts. Here, it is essential to understand the given scenario:
- Identify variables and outcomes — in this case, hitting or missing the target.
- Use mathematical methods to define these probabilities and explore possible outcomes.