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During 2017 , some Fed officials discussed the possibility of increasing interest rates as a way of fighting potential increases in expected inflation. If the public came to expect higher inflation rates in the future, what would be the effect on the short-run aggregate supply curve? Use an aggregate demand and supply graph to illustrate your answer.

Short Answer

Expert verified

The impact of higher projected inflation on the aggregate supply curve in the short run.

Step by step solution

01

Step 1. Concept of Inflation 

Inflation is defined as the rate at which the general price level of goods and services rises, resulting in a decline in the economy's purchasing power.

02

Step 2. Explanation

The following diagram depicts the impact of future expectations of high inflation on the short run aggregate supply curve:

1st Figure

If the public expects more inflation in the near future, the short-run aggregate demand curve will shift leftwards from AS to AS1. Because rising inflation leads to higher prices, producers are currently reducing aggregate supply in the economy in order to supply products and services at higher prices. In 2017, Federal officials were on the verge of raising interest rates in order to keep inflation under control. An increase in interest rates is far too late; it will raise inflation expectations even more, but an increase in interest rates far too soon will stymie recovery. This will stifle recovery and may push the economy into recession.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In its statement dated June 14, 2017, the Federal Open Market Committee indicated that inflation 鈥渋s running somewhat below 2%.鈥 Go to http://research.stlouisfed .org/fred2/, and click on the Series ID link 鈥淐PIAUCSL鈥 (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items-SA). Then click on the link 鈥淧ercent Change from Year Ago.鈥 What has happened to the inflation rate since the time of the last reported value in Figure 16?

If the unemployment rate is above the natural rate of unemployment, holding other factors constant, what will happen to inflation and output?

If the labor force becomes more productive over time, how would the long-run aggregate supply curve be affected?

Identify three factors that can shift the aggregate demand curve to the right and three different factors that can shift the aggregate demand curve to the left.

The Problems update with real-time data in My Lab Economics and are available for practice or instructor assignment.

1. Go to the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED database, and find data on real government spending (GCEC1), real GDP (GDPC1), taxes (WO06RC1 Q 027 SBEA), and the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCECTPI), a measure of the price level. Download all of the data into a spreadsheet, and convert the tax data series into real taxes. To do this, for each quarter, divide taxes by the price index and then multiply by 100 .

a. Calculate the level change in real GDP over the four most recent quarters of data available and the four quarters prior to that.

b. Calculate the level change in real government spending and real taxes over the four most recent quarters of data available and the four quarters prior to that.

c. Are your results consistent with what you would expect? How do your answers to part (b) help explain, if at all, your answer to part (a)? Explain using the IS and A D curves.

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