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A news story from 2017 about the oil market stated, "crude oil prices fell ... in part [due to] renewed concerns about the global supply glut." a. What does the article mean by a "glut"? What does a glut imply about the quantity demanded of oil relative to the quantity supplied? b. What would be the effect of the glut on oil prices? c. Briefly explain what would make the glut start to shrink.

Short Answer

Expert verified
A 'glut' means an oversupply, and in this context, it implies that the quantity of oil supplied is greater than the quantity demanded. This oversupply leads to a reduction in oil prices. The glut would start to shrink if either the supply decreases or demand increases (or both), due to factors like production cuts, increased consumption, or policy changes.

Step by step solution

01

Define 'Glut'

A glut is a situation where an oversupply of a certain good exists. In this scenario, it implies that the quantity of oil supplied exceeds the quantity demanded.
02

Effect of Glut on Prices

In situations where a glut occurs, when supply exceeds demand, that excess can lead to a decrease in market prices. According to the principles of economics, when the supply is greater than the demand, the price of the product falls. As such, the glut of oil in 2017 led to a reduction in crude oil prices.
03

Conditions for Glut to Shrink

The glut can start to shrink when either the supply decreases or demand increases (or a combination of both). This can be due to several factors such as production cuts by oil companies, increased consumption by consumers and industries, or policy changes that affect the oil market.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Supply and Demand in the Oil Market Glut
When the 2017 news story referenced a 'glut' in the oil market, it was highlighting a fundamental concept in economics - the balance of supply and demand. A 'glut' indicates a situation where there is an overabundance of a product, in this case, crude oil, meaning the supply far outweighs the demand.

In practical terms, if there is more oil available than consumers and businesses are willing or able to purchase, this surplus, or glut, occurs. The quantity demanded at the existing price is less than the quantity of oil that producers are trying to sell. This imbalance exerts a downward pressure on the market since producers may seek to offload excess supply, possibly by decreasing prices to stimulate demand.

Aligning supply with demand is a fundamental goal in economics. Logically, if an oil glut were to persist, producers might cut back on output to avoid a further price decrease or inventories could start stacking up, leading to potential storage issues and additional costs for producers.
Market Prices Reaction to the Oil Glut
The effect of a glut on oil prices is well-illustrated by the principles governing market prices. With an oversupply, the price for crude oil is expected to fall. This is due to the basic economic principle of supply and demand; a surplus of goods typically leads to lower prices as sellers compete to find buyers.

In the context of the oil market, a reduction in prices may be a signal sent to the producers to slow down supply and can also be a mechanism to lure more consumers to increase demand. The linkage between supply, demand, and price is such that each one influences the others continuously, creating a dynamic market environment. Market prices are not just numbers tagged on goods; they convey important information about the state of the market and prompt various stakeholders to react accordingly – whether it's cutting production, finding new markets, or innovating more efficient uses for oil.
Economic Principles Behind Shrinking the Glut
From an economic standpoint, reducing the glut can be seen as an exercise in restoring equilibrium between supply and demand. This equilibrium is stymied when there's a persistent oversupply, and prices fall as a result. To address this, the interplay of various economic principles comes into focus.

For instance, the law of supply states that producers will supply less at lower prices if all other factors remain constant. Consequently, oil-producing firms may voluntarily reduce production, or an external event like a geopolitical conflict might inadvertently constrain supply. On the demand side, lower oil prices can spur increased consumption by reducing costs for transportation and manufactured goods, provided the demand is elastic.

Moreover, policy interventions, like taxes or subsidies, can significantly influence market behaviors by making oil either more expensive or cheaper to produce and consume. Understandably, stricter environmental policies could dampen the demand for oil, while economic growth could enhance it. Ultimately, the glut starts to shrink when these various levers are adjusted to stabilize the supply and demand at acceptable levels for market participants.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

What do economists mean by shortage? By surplus?

In early 2017, an article in the Financial Times about the oil market quoted the chief economist of oil company \(\mathrm{BP}\) as saying, "Pricing pressure is likely to come from the supply side, because of strong growth in US shale oil (crude oil found within shale formations), and the demand side as the rise of renewable energy, including electric vehicles, gradually slows growth in oil consumption." After reading this article, a student argues: "From this information, we would expect that the price of oil will fall, but we don't know whether the equilibrium quantity of oil will increase or decrease." Is the student's analysis correct? Illustrate your answer with a demand and supply graph.

[Related to Solved Problem 3.3 on page 88\(]\) An article discusees the market for autographs by Mickey Mantle, the superstar center fielder for the New York Yankees during the 1950 s and 1960 s, "At card shows, golf outings, charity dinners, Mr. Mantle signed his name over and over." One expert on sports autographs was quoted as saying, "He was a real good signer.... He is not rare." Yet the article quoted another expert as saying, "Mr. Mantle's autograph ranks No. 3 of most-popular autographs, behind Babe Ruth and Muhammad Ali." A baseball signed by Mantle is likely to sell for the relatively high price of \(\$ 250\) to \(\$ 400\). By contrast, baseballs signed by Whitey Ford, a teammate of Mantle's on the Yankees, typically sell for less than \(\$ 150\). Use one graph to show both the demand and supply for autographs by Whitey Ford and the demand and supply for autographs by Mickey Mantle. Show how it is possible for the price of Mantle's autographs to be higher than the price of Ford's autographs, even though the supply of Mantle autographs is larger than the supply of Ford autographs.

[Related to Solved Problem 3.4 on page 94] According to one observer of the lobster market: "After Labor Day, when the vacationers have gone home, the lobstermen usually have a month or more of good fishing conditions, except for the occasional hurricane." Use a demand and supply graph to explain whether lobster prices are likely to be higher or lower during the fall than during the summer.

[Related to the Don't Let This Happen to You on page 96\(]\) A student was asked to draw a demand and supply graph to illustrate the effect on the market for premium bottled water of a fall in the price of electrolytes used in some brands of premium bottled water, holding everything else constant. She drew the following graph and explained it as follows: Electrolytes are an input to some brands of premium bottled water, so a fall in the price of electrolytes will cause the supply curve for premium bottled water to shift to the right (from \(S_{1}\) to \(S_{2}\) ). Because this shift in the supply curve results in a lower price \(\left(P_{2}\right)\), consumers will want to buy more premium bottled water, and the demand curve will shift to the right (from \(D_{1}\) to \(D_{2}\) ). We know that more premium bottled water will be sold, but we can't be sure whether the price of premium bottled water will rise or fall. That depends on whether the supply curve or the demand curve has shifted farther to the right. I assume that the effect on supply is greater than the effect on demand, so I show the final equilibrium price \(\left(P_{3}\right)\) as being lower than the initial equilibrium price \(\left(P_{1}\right)\). Explain whether you agree with the student's analysis. Be careful to explain exactly what - if anything- you find wrong with her analysis.

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