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An article in the Wall Street Journal stated: The U.S. dollar's more than \(20 \%\) rally since 2014 has been driven largely by what analyst call "divergence." While the Fed has been slowly tightening monetary policy amid an improving [U.S.] economy, central banks in Europe and Japan have continued to introduce stimulus as they struggle with stagnant growth and very low inflation. a. Which economic variable is "diverging" because of differences between the monetary policy of the Fed on the one hand and the monetary policies of the central banks of Europe and Japan on the other hand? b. Draw a graph of the demand and supply of U.S. dollars and show the effect of this "divergence" on the foreign exchange value of the dollar. Briefly explain what is happening in your graph.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The diverging economic variable due to different monetary policies is the value of the US dollar in foreign exchange markets. The divergence or differences in monetary policy cause an increase in demand for USD, leading to an increase in its value in foreign exchange markets. This is illustrated in a graph of the supply and demand of USD, where the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve leads to a shift to the right in the demand curve, thereby raising the equilibrium value of the dollar.

Step by step solution

01

Identifying the diverging economic variable

The diverging economic variable in this context is the Value of the US Dollar in foreign exchange markets. It's diverging because while the Fed has been tightening monetary policy leading to a stronger USD, central banks in Europe and Japan are introducing stimulus thereby weakening their respective currencies.
02

Drawing the graph

A graph representing the supply and demand of USD in foreign exchange markets would typically have 'Quantity of USD' on the x-axis and 'Value of USD' on the y-axis. The demand curve would be downwards sloping indicating that as the value of USD increases, its demand decreases and vice-versa. The supply curve would be upwards sloping indicating that as the value of USD increases, its supply also increases and vice-versa.
03

Showing the effect of divergence

This divergence has caused a shift to the right in the demand curve for USD as the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed makes USD more attractive on the foreign exchange market. This rightward shift increases the equilibrium value of the USD. This should be represented on the graph as a shift from the original demand curve (D1) to the new demand curve (D2) leading to an increase in the equilibrium value from P1 to P2.
04

Explaining the graph

The graph shows how the divergence in monetary policy is causing the demand for USD to increase, as indicated by the shift in the demand curve. This is mainly due to the tightening monetary policy of the Fed, which makes USD more attractive. This increased demand raises the equilibrium value of USD in foreign exchange markets, as illustrated by the increase in value from P1 to P2 on the graph.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Monetary Policy
Monetary policy plays a crucial role in determining a country's currency value in the foreign exchange markets. It involves the actions taken by a nation's central bank to control the money supply, influence economic activity, and ensure economic stability.

  • When a central bank, like the U.S. Federal Reserve, tightens monetary policy, it typically raises interest rates. This makes investments in the country's financial instruments more attractive due to higher returns. Consequently, demand for the currency increases, strengthening its value.
  • Conversely, if central banks, such as those in Europe and Japan, loosen monetary policy by lowering interest rates or implementing stimulus measures, their currencies may weaken. Lower interest rates mean lower returns on investments, decreasing demand for those currencies.
The divergence in these policies can lead to significant changes in currency values, as seen in the appreciation of the U.S. dollar when compared to other major currencies.
Demand and Supply Curves
In the context of foreign exchange markets, the demand and supply curves illustrate how the U.S. dollar's value is determined based on its demand and supply.

Typically, the demand curve for the U.S. dollar is downward sloping, meaning that as the value of the dollar increases (making it more expensive), fewer people are willing to buy it. On the other hand, the supply curve is upward sloping, indicating that as the dollar's value increases, holders are more willing to sell due to the higher price they can receive.

In the scenario described, a tightening of the U.S. monetary policy led to a shift in the demand curve for the dollar. As investors found U.S. financial assets more attractive, the demand for dollars surged, resulting in a rightward shift of the demand curve. This increase in demand elevates the equilibrium value of the dollar in the exchange markets.
Currency Valuation
Currency valuation is the process of determining the worth of one currency in relation to another. It's influenced by several factors including economic conditions, political stability, and importantly, monetary policy.

  • Divergent monetary policies, as in the case of the Fed versus European and Japanese central banks, can have profound effects on currency valuation. When the Fed tightens monetary policy, it shores up investor confidence, pushing the value of the dollar upwards.
  • Meanwhile, expansionary policies in Europe and Japan imply lower returns on investments in those regions, reducing their currency value. Investors tend to shift their portfolio towards U.S. dollars, further increasing its value.
This dynamic reinforces how crucial monetary policy is in influencing currency valuation in foreign exchange markets. A stronger dollar increases purchasing power for U.S. consumers but can make American exports more expensive abroad, affecting international trade dynamics.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

An article in the Economist quoted the finance minister of Peru as saying, "We are one of the most open economies of Latin America." What does he mean by saying that Peru is an "open economy"? Is fiscal policy in Peru likely to be more or less effective than it would be in a less open economy? Briefly explain.

An investment analyst recommended that investors "gravitate toward the stronger currencies and countries that are running current-account and fiscal surpluses," such as South Korea and Taiwan. a. Holding all other factors constant, would we expect a country that is running a government budget surplus to have a currency that is increasing in value or decreasing in value? Briefly explain. b. Holding all other factors constant, would we expect a country that has a currency that is increasing in value to have an increasing or a decreasing current account surplus? Briefly explain. c. Is the combination of economic characteristics this analyst has identified likely to be commonly found among countries? Briefly explain.

(Related to the Don't Let This Happen to You on page 1033) In 2016, Germany had a balance of trade surplus of \(€ 253\) billion and a current account surplus of \(€ 266\) billion. Explain how Germany's current account surplus could be larger than its trade surplus. In \(2016,\) what would we expect Germany's balance on the financial account to have been? Briefly explain.

Suppose that Federal Reserve policy leads to higher interest rates in the United States. a. How will this policy affect real GDP in the short run if the United States is a closed economy? b. How will this policy affect real GDP in the short run if the United States is an open economy? c. How will your answer to part (b) change if interest rates also rise in the countries that are the major trading partners of the United States?

An article in the Wall Street Journal stated, "With the uncertainty lifting and economy doing well, the European Central Bank is more likely to taper the massive stimulus program that has helped keep pressure on the euro." a. What does the article mean by "pressure on the euro"? b. What is the article referring to by the "massive stimulus program" by the European Central Bank, and why would it keep pressure on the euro? c. If you ran a business in the euro zone that exports to the United States and Japan, would the tapering (cutting back) of the massive stimulus program help you? If you were a consumer in the euro zone, would the tapering of the program help you? Briefly explain.

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