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Suppose that \(\Omega\) is a sample space with a probability density function \(p\), and suppose that \(A \subseteq \Omega\). Let \(P(A)\) denote the probability of \(A\). Assume that \(P(A)>0 .\) Define a function \(p_{1}\) on \(A\) as follows: For \(\omega \in A, p_{1}(\omega)=p(\omega) / P(A)\). (a) Show that if \(\omega_{1}, \omega_{2} \in A\) and \(p\left(\omega_{1}\right), p\left(\omega_{2}\right) \neq 0,\) then \(\frac{p\left(\omega_{1}\right)}{p\left(\omega_{2}\right)}=\frac{p_{1}\left(\omega_{1}\right)}{p_{1}\left(\omega_{2}\right)}\) (b) Show that if \(B\) and \(C\) are nonempty subsets of \(A\) with elements that have positive probabilities, then \(\frac{P(B)}{P(C)}=\frac{P_{1}(B)}{P_{1}(C)}\) (c) Show that \(p_{1}\) is a probability density function on \(\Omega_{1}=A\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Ratios of \(p_1\) and \(p\) are equal. (b) Ratios of probabilities using \(p_1\) and \(p\) are equal. (c) \(p_1\) is a valid probability density function on \(A\).

Step by step solution

01

Understand Part (a)

We need to show that for any elements \( \omega_1, \omega_2 \in A \), if \( p(\omega_1), p(\omega_2) eq 0 \), then the ratio \( \frac{p(\omega_1)}{p(\omega_2)} = \frac{p_1(\omega_1)}{p_1(\omega_2)} \). The function \( p_1 \) is defined as \( p_1(\omega) = \frac{p(\omega)}{P(A)} \).
02

Solve Part (a)

Calculate \( p_1(\omega_1) = \frac{p(\omega_1)}{P(A)} \) and \( p_1(\omega_2) = \frac{p(\omega_2)}{P(A)} \). Then, the ratio \( \frac{p_1(\omega_1)}{p_1(\omega_2)} = \frac{\frac{p(\omega_1)}{P(A)}}{\frac{p(\omega_2)}{P(A)}} = \frac{p(\omega_1)}{p(\omega_2)} \), showing equality.
03

Understand Part (b)

We need to prove that for subsets \( B \) and \( C \) of \( A \), the ratio \( \frac{P(B)}{P(C)} = \frac{P_1(B)}{P_1(C)} \). Here, \( P_1(B) = \int_B p_1(\omega) \, d\omega = \int_B \frac{p(\omega)}{P(A)} \, d\omega \).
04

Solve Part (b)

Compute \( P_1(B) = \frac{1}{P(A)} \int_B p(\omega) \, d\omega = \frac{P(B)}{P(A)} \) and \( P_1(C) = \frac{1}{P(A)} \int_C p(\omega) \, d\omega = \frac{P(C)}{P(A)} \). Then, \( \frac{P_1(B)}{P_1(C)} = \frac{\frac{P(B)}{P(A)}}{\frac{P(C)}{P(A)}} = \frac{P(B)}{P(C)} \).
05

Understand Part (c)

We are required to show that \( p_1 \) is a probability density function over \( \Omega_1 = A \). This involves showing that it satisfies both non-negativity and normalization conditions.
06

Prove Non-negativity Condition of Part (c)

For any \( \omega \in A \), \( p_1(\omega) = \frac{p(\omega)}{P(A)} \geq 0 \) because \( p(\omega) \geq 0 \) and \( P(A) > 0 \). Thus, \( p_1(\omega) \geq 0 \).
07

Prove Normalization Condition of Part (c)

Calculate \( \int_A p_1(\omega) \, d\omega = \int_A \frac{p(\omega)}{P(A)} \, d\omega = \frac{1}{P(A)} \int_A p(\omega) \, d\omega = \frac{P(A)}{P(A)} = 1 \). Therefore, \( p_1 \) is normalized over \( A \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Space
In probability theory, a sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probabilistic experiment. It is often denoted by the symbol \( \Omega \). Whenever we define an experiment or a random process, determining the sample space is the crucial first step.

Consider rolling a six-sided die. The sample space \( \Omega \) in this case consists of the numbers that can appear face-up: \( \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\} \). Here, each outcome represents a single event that could occur when you roll the die.

Understanding the sample space helps us set the stage for calculating probabilities. It allows us to know every conceivable situation that might occur. In our exercise, \( \Omega \) represents the overarching set where every possible outcome resides. The subset \( A \) of this sample space includes outcomes we are particularly interested in analyzing. It's like focusing on a slice of the larger pie that is \( \Omega \).

This initial comprehension of the sample space and subsets like \( A \) enables deeper exploration into event probabilities and density functions later on.
Event Probability
Event probability refers to the chance of an event occurring within a sample space. An event is any subset of the sample space, and its probability is a measure of how likely this event is to happen.

Let's say we flip a coin. The sample space \( \Omega \) for this experiment is \( \{ \text{Heads}, \text{Tails} \} \). If we want to determine the probability of getting heads, we calculate the event probability \( P(A) \), where \( A \) is the event of flipping heads.

If each outcome is equally likely, the probability is given by dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes. In the coin example, this would be \( \frac{1}{2} \), because there's one favorable outcome (heads) out of two possible outcomes (heads or tails).

In the context of our exercise, when we work with specific subsets \( B \) and \( C \) of \( A \), we analyze the probability of events occurring within these subsets. This forms the basis for comparing probabilities within a focused subset, allowing us to further understand and calculate \( P_1(B) \) and \( P_1(C) \), recalibrating our focus to the desired section of \( \Omega \).
Non-negativity and Normalization
For a function to be a valid probability density function, two crucial conditions must be met: non-negativity and normalization. Let's break these down.

  • Non-negativity: This means that the probability assigned to any outcome must be zero or positive. It’s inherently illogical to have a negative probability because we can't have less than zero chance of something occurring. In our exercise, the function \( p_1(\omega) = \frac{p(\omega)}{P(A)} \) remains non-negative because as long as \( p(\omega) \) is a valid probability density function, \( p(\omega) \geq 0 \), and with \( P(A) > 0 \), it ensures \( p_1(\omega) \geq 0 \).

  • Normalization: A probability density function has to sum up, or integrate, to one over its entire sample space. This requirement ensures that the total probability of some outcome occurring from the entirety of \( \Omega \) is always 100%. For \( p_1 \) in our problem, the normalizing step involves showing that \( \int_A p_1(\omega) \, d\omega = 1 \). We achieve this by verifying that dividing by \( P(A) \) correctly scales the probabilities so that they sum to one within subset \( A \).

These conditions ensure that we can interpret \( p_1 \) as a probability density function on its own, allowing for meaningful predictions and analyses to be made on the subset \( A \) within \( \Omega \). Understanding these principles is key to manipulating probability functions correctly and effectively.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Game A has you roll a fair die once and receive the number of dollars that is equal to the value on the top face. Game \(B\) has you roll a fair die twice and receive the number of dollars that is the maximum of the two values that show on the top face. It costs \(\$ 3\) to play game \(A\) and \(\$ 4\) to play game \(B\). Which game would you choose?

Recall that by definition, a discrete sample space may contain a countably infinite number of outcomes. This exercise gives an example of such a countably infinite sample space. Suppose we flip a fair coin until it comes up heads. Of course, there is no way to know in advance how many flips will be required. Design a sample space and a probability density to model this situation. Prove that the probability density you define is legitimate.

A television show features the following weekly game: A sports car is hidden behind one door, and a goat is hidden behind each of two other doors. The moderator of the show invites the contestant to pick a door at random. Then, by tradition, the moderator is obligated to open one of the two doors not chosen to reveal a goat (there are two goats, so there is always such a door to open). At this point, the contestant is given the opportunity to stand pat (do nothing) or to choose the remaining door. Suppose you are the contestant, and suppose you prefer the sports car over a goat as your prize. What do you do? (Hint: It may help to model this as a two-stage dependent trials process, but it may not be obvious how to do this). (a) Suppose you decide to stand with your original choice. What are your chances of winning the car? (b) Suppose you decide to switch to the remaining door. What are your chances of winning the car? (c) Suppose you decide to flip a fair coin. If it comes up heads, you change your choice; otherwise, you stand pat. What are your chances of winning the car?

(a) Give an example that shows three pairwise independent events need not be an independent set of events. (b) Give an example that shows three events can be independent without having the corresponding pairs of events be independent.

Consider a sample space \(\Omega=\\{a, e, i, o, u\\}\) endowed with the following probability density: \(p(a)=0.22, p(e)=0.35, p(i)=0.13, p(o)=0.20,\) and \(p(u)=0.10 .\) Determine the probabilities of the following events: (a) \(\\{a, o\\}\) (b) \(\emptyset\) (c) The event \(E\) consisting of all those outcomes in \(\Omega\) that come after the letter \(k\) in the alphabet

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