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Find the probability of getting a five exactly twice in seven rolls of a fair die.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is approximately 0.2615.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Probability of Single Event

When rolling a fair six-sided die, the probability of rolling a five (successful outcome) is \( \frac{1}{6} \). Conversely, the probability of not rolling a five (unsuccessful outcome) is \( \frac{5}{6} \).
02

Determine the Total Number of Trials

The die is rolled seven times. Therefore, the total number of trials \( n \) is 7.
03

Identify the Desired Number of Successful Events

We are interested in finding the probability of rolling a five exactly twice. Thus, the number of successful events \( k \) is 2.
04

Use the Binomial Probability Formula

The situation is described by a binomial distribution, where the probability of exactly \( k \) successes in \( n \) trials is given by the formula: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] where \( p \) is the probability of success, \( n \) is the number of trials, and \( k \) is the number of successes.
05

Calculate the Binomial Coefficient

The binomial coefficient \( \binom{7}{2} \) calculates the number of ways to choose 2 successes (rolling a five) from 7 trials: \[ \binom{7}{2} = \frac{7!}{2!(7-2)!} = \frac{7 \times 6}{2 \times 1} = 21. \]
06

Apply the Binomial Formula

Substitute \( n = 7 \), \( k = 2 \), and \( p = \frac{1}{6} \) into the binomial probability formula: \[ P(X = 2) = \binom{7}{2} \left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^2 \left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^{7-2} = 21 \times \frac{1}{36} \times \frac{3125}{7776}. \]
07

Simplify the Expression

Evaluate the expression to find: \[ P(X = 2) = \frac{21 \times 3125}{36 \times 7776} \approx 0.2615. \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability theory is the mathematical framework for quantifying uncertainty. It's like navigating the world of chance where we assign numbers to events to show how probable they are.
For example, when you roll a die, each outcome (rolling a one, two, three, etc.) has a certain probability associated with it. Since a fair die has six faces, the probability of any specific number showing up is \( \frac{1}{6} \).
This is because there is one favorable outcome and six possible outcomes in total. Similarly, not rolling a five means rolling one of the other five numbers (one through four, or six), which is \( \frac{5}{6} \).
  • Probability is always between 0 and 1. A probability of 0 means the event cannot happen, while 1 means it is certain to happen.
  • The sum of probabilities for all possible outcomes of a random experiment is 1.
  • In probability theory, we also sometimes deal with 'complementary events'—where not rolling a five in this case is such a complementary event.
Probability theory helps us make predictions about outcomes over the long term, which is a key concept in many areas of science, finance, and risk management.
Combinatorics
Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics focused on counting, arranging, and probability. It's like solving a puzzle of possibilities! When dealing with problems like our dice example, combinatorics helps us figure out how many different ways events can occur.
In our case, we're interested in how many ways we can roll a five exactly twice in seven rolls.
This is calculated using the binomial coefficient \( \binom{n}{k} \), which demonstrates how to select k successes out of n trials. In simpler terms, it helps us understand the different "arrangements" of achieving a certain number of successes in a series of events.
In our problem: \[ \binom{7}{2} = \frac{7!}{2!(7-2)!} = 21 \] This means there are 21 different ways to achieve exactly two fives in seven dice rolls.
  • Factorials (denoted by \( n! \)) are used in these calculations; for instance, \( 5! = 5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1 \).
  • Combinatorics doesn't just stop at dice; it also applies to things like card games, route planning, and seating arrangements.
  • Understanding combinations and arrangements allows us to see all potential outcomes and their likelihood.
Discrete Mathematics
Discrete mathematics is the study of mathematical structures that are fundamentally discrete rather than continuous. It's a cornerstone of computer science, cryptography, and combinatorial designs. In our exercise involving dice, discrete mathematics comes into play with the binomial distribution.
The binomial distribution is part of probability theory, but it shines in discrete mathematics by dealing with events that have two possible outcomes (success or failure).
When we rolled the die, we learned that our event (rolling a five) doesn't happen every time; it has discrete chances. Using discrete math, we calculate the likelihood of an event occurring a specific number of times—with set parameters (like seven dice rolls) and outcomes (like five or not-five).
Our problem utilized: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \] This binomial probability formula gives us the likelihood of k successes among n trials.
  • Discrete math deals with structures like graphs, integers, and logical statements.
  • The use of binomial distribution in discrete settings helps solve problems in statistics and applied science.
  • It's essential for developing algorithms and systems in computer science.
  • Discrete mathematics helps us "count" and analyze situations where continuity or smoothness doesn't apply.
This makes it a vital tool for designing experiments and predicting outcomes in various applications.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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