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Show that the average value of a random variable \(n\) whose probability function is the Poisson distribution (9.8) is the number \(\mu\) in \((9.8) .\) Also show that the standard deviation of the random variable is \(\sqrt{\mu} .\) Hint. Write the infinite series for \(e^{x}\), differentiate it and multiply by \(x\) to get \(x e^{x}=\sum\left(n x^{n} / n !\right) ;\) put \(x=\mu .\) To find \(\sigma^{2}\) differentiate the \(x e^{x}\) series again, etc.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The average value is \( \mu \) and the standard deviation is \( \sqrt{\mu} \).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution is defined by its probability mass function (pmf): \[ P(X = k) = \frac{\mu^k e^{-\mu}}{k!} \] where \( \mu \) is the mean (or average) of the distribution and \( k \) is a non-negative integer.
02

Write the Infinite Series for \( e^x \)

The exponential function \( e^x \) can be expressed as an infinite series: \[ e^x = \sum_{n=0}^{\infty} \frac{x^n}{n!} \]
03

Differentiate the Series and Multiply by \( x \)

Differentiate both sides of the series with respect to \( x \) and then multiply by \( x \): \[ \frac{d}{dx}(e^x) = e^x \] Multiplying by \( x \): \[ x e^x = x \sum_{n=0}^{\infty} \frac{x^n}{n!} = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{x^n}{(n-1)!} \] Notice how the summation index shifts after differentiation.
04

Rewrite the Series and Substitute \( x = \mu \)

Rewrite the series with the correct summation limit: \[ x e^x = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{x^n}{(n-1)!} = \sum_{n=0}^{\infty} \frac{x^{n+1}}{n!} \] Then, substitute \( x = \mu \): \[ \mu e^{\mu} = \sum_{n=0}^{\infty} \frac{\mu^{n+1}}{n!} \]
05

Show the Mean \( \mu \)

From the weighted sum of the Poisson pmf: \[ \mu = E(X) = \sum_{n=0}^{\infty} n \frac{\mu^n e^{-\mu}}{n!} = \mu e^{-\mu} \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \frac{\mu^{n-1}}{(n-1)!} = \mu e^{-\mu} \cdot e^{\mu} = \mu \]
06

Find the Standard Deviation

The variance of a Poisson-distributed random variable is the same as its mean: \[ \sigma^2 = Var(X) = E(X^2) - (E(X))^2 = \mu \] Therefore, the standard deviation \( \sigma \) is: \[ \sigma = \sqrt{\mu} \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Average Value of Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution describes the probability of a given number of events occurring within a fixed interval of time or space. It is characterized by the parameter \( \mu \), which represents the average number of events. The average value of a random variable in a Poisson distribution is also called the mean. To find this average value, denote the random variable by \( X \) and use its probability mass function (pmf): \( P(X = k) = \frac{\mu^k e^{-\mu}}{k!} \).
The expected value, or mean, of the Poisson distribution can be found by: \( E(X) = \sum_{n=0}^{\infty} n \frac{\mu^n e^{-\mu}}{n!} \).
Through careful computation and recognizing how the sums interact with the exponential function, one finds that \(E(X) = \mu\).
This result makes intuitive sense because in a Poisson process with average rate \(\mu\), \(\mu\) is the expected number of occurrences.
Standard Deviation of Poisson Distribution
The standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. For the Poisson distribution, the variance and the mean are equal. This can be derived from properties of the Poisson distribution:
The variance of a Poisson-distributed random variable X is given by: \( \sigma^2 = Var(X) = E(X^2) - (E(X))^2 = \mu \).
Therefore, the standard deviation \( \sigma \) is the square root of the variance: \( \sigma = \sqrt{\mu} \).
This indicates that as \(\mu\) increases, both the mean and the variation around that mean also increase.
Probability Mass Function
The probability mass function (pmf) of a discrete random variable gives the probability that the variable is exactly equal to some value. For the Poisson distribution, the pmf is given by:
\( P(X = k) = \frac{\mu^k e^{-\mu}}{k!} \), where \( k \) is a non-negative integer.
This formula shows how the probability of observing exactly \( k \) events is determined by the mean number of events \( \mu \). The exponential function \( e^{-\mu} \) decays, ensuring that the probabilities sum to 1 over all possible values of \( k \). The factorial term \( k! \) adjusts for the number of ways \( k \) events can occur.
Exponential Function Series
The exponential function \( e^x \) can be expressed as an infinite series, a key concept in finding moments of a Poisson distribution. The series for \( e^x \) is:
\( e^x = \sum_{n=0}^{\infty} \frac{x^n}{n!} \).
This representation is powerful because it allows us to manipulate and differentiate the function to obtain necessary identities. For example, differentiating \( e^x \) gives it back, as \( \frac{d}{dx}(e^x) = e^x \). Multiplying both sides by \( x \) lets us connect the series to \( \mu \) in the Poisson distribution.
Statistical Mean and Variance
In statistics, the mean is the average value of a random variable, while the variance measures the spread of its values. For the Poisson distribution, calculating the mean and variance involves using its pmf and properties of the exponential function series. The mean \( \mu \) is given by the expected value: \( E(X) = \sum_{n=0}^{\infty} n \frac{\mu^n e^{-\mu}}{n!} = \mu \).
The variance is: \( Var(X) = \sigma^2 = E(X^2) - (E(X))^2 = \mu \)
Consequently, these results confirm that both the mean and the variance for the Poisson distribution are equal to \( \mu \).

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Most popular questions from this chapter

(a) Suppose that Martian dice are regular tetrahedra with vertices labeled 1 to 4 Two such dice are tossed and the sum of the numbers showing is even. Let \(x\) be this sum. Set up the sample space for \(x\) and the associated probabilities. (b) Find \(E(x)\) and \(\sigma_{x}\) (c) Find the probability of exactly fifteen 2 's in 48 tosses of a Martian die using the binomial distribution. (d) Approximate (c) using the normal distribution. (e) Approximate (c) using the Poisson distribution.

Let \(x=\) number of heads in one toss of a coin. What are the possible values of \(x\) and their probabilities? What is \(\left.\mu_{x} ? \text { Hence show that } \operatorname{Var}(x)=\text { [average of }\left(x-\mu_{x}\right)^{2}\right]\) \(=\frac{1}{4},\) so the standard deviation is \(\frac{1}{2} .\) Now use the result from Problem 6.15 "variance of a sum of independent random variables \(=\) sum of their variances" to show that if \(x=\) number of heads in \(n\) tosses of a coin, \(\operatorname{Var}(x)=\frac{1}{4} n\) and the standard deviation \(\sigma_{x}=\frac{1}{2} \sqrt{n}\).

Would you pay \(\$ 10\) per throw of two dice if you were to receive a number of dollars equal to the product of the numbers on the dice? Hint: What is your expectation? If it is more than \(\$ 10,\) then the game would be favorable for you.

(a) Find the probability density function \(f(x)\) for the position \(x\) of a particle which is executing simple harmonic motion on \((-a, a)\) along the \(x\) axis. (See Chapter 7, Section 2, for a discussion of simple harmonic motion.) Hint: The value of \(x\) at time \(t\) is \(x=a\) cos \(\omega t .\) Find the velocity \(d x / d t ;\) then the probability of finding the particle in a given \(d x\) is proportional to the time it spends there which is inversely proportional to its speed there. Don't forget that the total probability of finding the particle somewhere must be 1. (b) Sketch the probability density function \(f(x)\) found in part (a) and also the cumulative distribution function \(F(x) \text { [see equation }(6.4)]\). (c) Find the average and the standard deviation of \(x\) in part (a).

Five cards are dealt from a shuffled deck. What is the probability that they are all of the same suit? That they are all diamond? That they are all face cards? That the five cards are a sequence in the same suit (for example, 3,4,5,6,7 of hearts)?

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