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Two cards are drawn at random from a shuffled deck. (a) What is the probability that at least one is a heart? (b) If you know that at least one is a heart, what is the probability that both are hearts?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) \(\approx 0.441\), (b) \(\approx 0.133\)

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Total Possible Outcomes

A standard deck has 52 cards. The total number of ways to draw 2 cards from 52 is given by the combination formula \[ \binom{52}{2} = \frac{52!}{2!(52-2)!} = \frac{52 \times 51}{2 \times 1} = 1326 \]
02

Calculate Outcomes with No Hearts

Calculate the number of ways to draw 2 cards such that none of them is a heart. There are 39 non-heart cards in a deck. The number of ways to draw 2 non-heart cards is \[ \binom{39}{2} = \frac{39!}{2!(39-2)!} = \frac{39 \times 38}{2 \times 1} = 741 \]
03

Calculate Probability of At Least One Heart

The complement of drawing at least one heart is drawing no hearts. Thus, the probability of drawing no hearts is \[ P(\text{No Hearts}) = \frac{\binom{39}{2}}{\binom{52}{2}} = \frac{741}{1326} \]The probability of drawing at least one heart is then \[ P(\text{At Least One Heart}) = 1 - P(\text{No Hearts}) = 1 - \frac{741}{1326} = \frac{585}{1326} \approx 0.441 \]
04

Calculate Outcomes with Both Hearts

Calculate the number of ways to draw 2 hearts. There are 13 hearts in a deck. The number of ways to draw 2 hearts is \[ \binom{13}{2} = \frac{13!}{2!(13-2)!} = \frac{13 \times 12}{2 \times 1} = 78 \]
05

Probability of Both Hearts Given At Least One Heart

The relevant set of outcomes now includes all draws where at least one heart is present. Using step 3, this set includes \[ 1326 - 741 = 585 \text{ outcomes} \]The probability of both cards being hearts given that at least one is a heart is \[ P(\text{Both Hearts} | \text{At Least One Heart}) = \frac{\binom{13}{2}}{585} = \frac{78}{585} \approx 0.133 \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

combinatorial probability
Combinatorial probability is a key area of probability theory that deals with counting the number of ways certain events can occur. These counts are often described using a combination formula. In our exercise, we used combinatorial probability to figure out the number of possible ways to draw 2 cards from a deck of 52 cards. The combination formula is given as \[ \binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} \] where \(n\) is the total number of items, and \(k\) is the number of items to choose. By applying this formula, we find \[ \binom{52}{2} = \frac{52!}{2!(52-2)!} = \frac{52 \times 51}{2 \times 1} = 1326 \] which is the total number of ways to pick 2 cards from 52. Similarly, for non-hearts and hearts cases, we calculated combinations like \[ \binom{39}{2} \] and \[ \binom{13}{2} \] to further understand the different outcomes possible.
conditional probability
Conditional probability deals with the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It is denoted as \( P(A | B) \), which reads as 'the probability of A given B.' In our exercise, we considered the probability of both cards being hearts given that at least one card drawn is a heart. To determine this, we followed a step-by-step calculation:
  • First, we calculated the number of ways to have at least one heart, subtracting non-heart combinations from the total combinations: \[ P(\text{At Least One Heart}) = 1326 - 741 = 585 \]
  • Next, we calculated the probability of both cards being hearts if at least one is known to be a heart: \[ P(\text{Both Hearts} | \text{At Least One Heart}) = \frac{\binom{13}{2}}{585} = \frac{78}{585} \]
  • This conditional probability helps us understand how additional information affects the likelihood of outcomes.
card probabilities
Card probabilities are specific applications of combinatorial and conditional probability. When dealing with cards, common tasks include calculating the chances of drawing certain types or suits of cards in various scenarios. In our problem, we addressed two key questions:
  • What is the probability of drawing at least one heart out of two cards? By calculating \[ P(\text{No Hearts}) = \frac{\binom{39}{2}}{\binom{52}{2}} = \frac{741}{1326} \] and its complement, we found that \[ P(\text{At Least One Heart}) = 1 - P(\text{No Hearts}) = 1 - \frac{741}{1326} = \frac{585}{1326} \]
  • What is the chance that both cards are hearts, given at least one is a heart? We determined that: \[ P(\text{Both Hearts} | \text{At Least One Heart}) = \frac{\binom{13}{2}}{585} = \frac{78}{585} \]
These calculations underscore the interconnectedness of different probability concepts and their specific application to card scenarios, making it easy to grasp the underlying patterns in card probability problems.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Set up sample spaces for Problems 1 to 7 and list next to each sample point the value of the indicated random variable \(x,\) and the probability associated with the sample point. Make a table of the different values \(x_{i}\) of \(x\) and the corresponding probabilities \(p_{i}=f\left(x_{i}\right)\) Compute the mean, the variance, and the standard deviation for \(x\). Find and plot the cumulative distribution function \(F(x)\). A weighted coin with probability \(p\) of coming down heads is tossed three times; \(x=\) number of heads minus number of tails.

A student claims in Problem 1.5 that if one child is a girl, the probability that both are girls is \(\frac{1}{2} .\) Use appropriate sample spaces to show what is wrong with the following argument: It doesn't matter whether the girl is the older child or the younger; in either case the probability is \(\frac{1}{2}\) that the other child is a girl.

A so-called 7 -way lamp has three 60 -watt bulbs which may be turned on one or two or all three at a time, and a large bulb which may be turned to 100 watts, 200 watts or 300 watts. How many different light intensities can the lamp be set to give if the completely off position is not included? (The answer is not 7 .)

Using both the binomial distribution and the normal approximation. A die is thrown 720 times. (a) Find the probability that 3 comes up exactly 125 times. (b) Find the probability that 3 comes up between 115 and 130 times.

(a) A candy vending machine is out of order. The probability that you get a candy bar (with or without return of your money) is \(\frac{1}{2},\) the probability that you get your money back (with or without candy) is \(\frac{1}{3}\), and the probability that you get both the candy and your money back is \(\frac{1}{12}\). What is the probability that you get nothing at all? Suggestion: Sketch a geometric diagram similar to Figure 3.1, indicate regions representing the various possibilities and their probabilities; then set up a four-point sample space and the associated probabilities of the points. (b) Suppose you try again to get a candy bar as in part (a). Set up the 16 -point sample space corresponding to the possible results of your two attempts to buy a candy bar, and find the probability that you get two candy bars (and no money back); that you get no candy and lose your money both times; that you just get your money back both times.

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