Chapter 5: Problem 19
Consider the following discrete logistic model for the change in the size of a population over time: $$N_{t+1}=R_{0} N_{t}-\frac{1}{100} N_{t}^{2}$$ for \(t=0,1,2, \ldots\) (a) Find all equilibria when \(R_{0}=3.5\) and calculate which (if any) are stable. (b) Calculate the first ten terms of the sequence when \(N_{0}=10\) and describe what you see.
Short Answer
Step by step solution
Introduction to the Discrete Logistic Model
Find Equilibria
Calculate Equilibria for \(R_0 = 3.5\)
Analyze Stability of Equilibria
Calculate First Ten Terms when \(N_0 = 10\)
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Equilibria in Discrete Logistic Models
Insert the equilibrium condition into the equation: \\[ N^* = R_0 N^* - \frac{1}{100} (N^*)^2 \] Simplifying leads to: \\[ 0 = (R_0 - 1) N^* - \frac{1}{100} (N^*)^2 \] Factor this equation to find: \\[ N^*(R_0 - 1 - \frac{1}{100}N^*) = 0 \] This indicates two potential equilibria: one where \(N^* = 0\), meaning the population becomes extinct, and another found at \(N^* = 100(R_0 - 1)\), based on the growth rate \(R_0\).
Stability Analysis of Equilibria
To assess stability, we examine the derivative \(f'(N)\) of the function \(f(N) = R_0 N - \frac{1}{100} N^2\). Derive: \[ f'(N) = R_0 - \frac{2}{100} N \] Evaluate \(f'(N)\) at the equilibria:
- At \(N^* = 0\), the derivative is \(f'(0) = 3.5\). Since \(|f'(0)| > 1\), this equilibrium is unstable.
- At \(N^* = 250\), substitute into the derivative to find \(f'(250) = 3.5 - \frac{500}{100} = -1.5\). As \(|f'(250)| < 1\), this equilibrium is stable.
Understanding Population Dynamics
Starting with an initial population \(N_0\) such as 10, we calculate subsequent population sizes using the recurrence relation:\( N_{t+1} = R_0 N_t - \frac{1}{100} N_t^2 \). The first ten terms give us insights into the dynamics:
- Rapid Growth: Initially, the population grows quickly beyond the unstable equilibrium of \(N^* = 0\).
- Fluctuation and Stabilization: The population continues to rise and will fluctuate as it nears the stable equilibrium \(N^* = 250\).
- Long-term Stability: Eventually, it stabilizes at or around the stable point, assuming conditions remain consistent.
Exploring Recurrence Relations
For our logistic model, the recurrence relation is: \\[ N_{t+1} = R_0 N_t - \frac{1}{100} N_t^2 \] This equation helps track how each population size (\(N_{t+1}\)) depends directly on the previous size (\(N_t\)) and other parameters like the intrinsic growth rate \(R_0\). Using a recurrence relation:
- Enables predictions about future population size, given an initial population \(N_0\).
- Allows for observing how adjustments in \(R_0\) affect overall growth and approach to equilibrium.
- Models the biological constraints perfectly, especially when considering carrying capacity limits.